Good rains dent numbers needing help

Two million Somalis, an estimated 27 percent of the total population, still need emergency and livelihood assistance, despite above-average seasonal rains boosting livestock farming and creating a bumper harvest of maize and sorghum, says a study by the Nairobi-based Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Union (FSNAU) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).



“Despite improvements in food production generating a drop of 25 percent [in the numbers needing assistance] compared to six months ago, if the next rainy season is poor, the numbers are likely to rise again,” said Grainne Moloney, FSNAU’s chief technical adviser.



“We need to increase the resilience of the local population through projects aimed at boosting small farmers' output, improving their market access and incomes, as well as rebuilding essential irrigation infrastructure and improving integrated pest management and storage techniques.”



A prolonged drought in 2009 damaged crops and killed livestock, leaving 7.5 million people in Somalia needing aid. This year, the first, or “gu” rainy season started in February, two months earlier than usual, and reduced the need for relief efforts in the agriculture and livestock sectors. Since the beginning of the year, rainfall estimate data indicates exceptional rainfall compared with the average in Southern regions and in the Northwest.



The FSNAU study reports good production in most cereal-producing districts of Shabelle and Bay regions, both in Southern Somalia, with improved output of sorghum in the northwestern areas of Hargeisa and Borama, and of maize in the southern districts of Jamaame and Afmadow.



“Pasture conditions have generally improved throughout Somalia, particularly in the north, but it will take many years of good rains for pastoralists to recover from droughts of previous years,” Moloney told IRIN.



FSNAU data indicates that general local cereal prices are likely to come down by September while access to milk has increased in the past six months, particularly in the south, where prices fell.



“The situation is still worrisome in the south-central Hiran region, one of the most insecure areas in the country,” Moloney noted.



The Hiran region has an estimated 51,150 displaced people, according to the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, and is inaccessible to humanitarian agencies. FSNAU reports that 205,000 people - about 62 percent - of the total population need assistance. This represents a decline in the overall number of people in crisis in the region, with FSNAU reporting an estimated 80 percent of the population needing food aid six months ago.



According to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), although Somalia’s nutrition situation has improved in the north, 90 percent – an estimated 31,500 – of Somalia’s severely malnourished children are concentrated in the insecure south-central region.



With one in six children acutely malnourished and one in 22 severely malnourished in the area, the situation still remains one of the worst in the world, said Luca Alinovi, FAO Somalia’s newly appointed officer in charge.



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