Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.
On our radar
Trump’s global imperial court
When US President Donald Trump first proposed establishing a so-called Board of Peace to oversee governance of the Gaza Strip for a transitional period back in September, the idea was quickly likened to a form of colonial takeover. The UN nonetheless adopted a Security Council resolution in November giving its blessing to the board’s creation – a vote some member states may now regret. The board was officially inaugurated in a 22 January ceremony in Davos, Switzerland, where Trump was attending the World Economic Forum. But Gaza seems almost incidental to its true mission, which appears to be creating a global strongmen’s club – led by Trump, potentially for life – to rival, if not replace, the UN itself. With many European countries hesitant to join, whether it will get off the ground remains to be seen. But the White House has also announced the Palestinian committee that is supposed to govern Gaza under the board’s supervision, and the overall imperial bent of the Board of Peace and its troubling composition seem to confirm fears that Trump’s peace plan is leading nowhere good. For example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted an invitation to join the board. Not only is he wanted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court, but this means he is now pencilled in to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, a territory where many accuse him of directing a genocide.
Renewed conflict rattles South Sudan
Intense fighting has displaced large numbers of people in South Sudan, as the country’s main opposition movement and allied militias make gains against government forces. Citing government figures, the UN says around 180,000 people have fled their homes since last month in Jonglei state. Opposition forces have seized several towns in Jonglei and are now pushing towards the state capital, while fighting continues across multiple other states. Emboldened by their momentum, some opposition leaders have even begun talking about a march on Juba. The International Crisis Group says the speed of the advance has fuelled suspicions that the insurgency is receiving outside backing – possibly from the Sudanese Armed Forces, in what could be retaliation for Juba’s growing ties with the Rapid Support Forces. The fighting follows the collapse of a fragile power-sharing deal that was meant to end the civil war between forces aligned with opposition leader Riek Machar and President Salva Kiir. Kiir suspended Machar as first vice president last year and put him on trial for murder and treason, accusing him of backing a militia that overran an army barracks – an account that remains hotly contested. Critics note that Kiir had been steadily hollowing out the peace agreement long before that, courting defections and systematically weakening the opposition.
UN assumes responsibility for IS detention centre in Syria
The UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR, will take over management of Syria’s al-Hol camp, which holds tens of thousands of women and children linked to the so-called Islamic State (IS), after Kurdish-led forces withdrew on 20 January as Syrian government troops took control of the country’s northeast. The agency is working with the Syrian authorities to restore humanitarian access following a spate of escapes and looting. The United States has launched a parallel initiative to transfer thousands of high-risk detainees from Syria to Iraq. Many of al-Hol’s detainees deny having IS ties, and most have not been charged with any crime, prompting accusations of collective punishment by rights groups. A ceasefire agreement between Syrian government forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – a coalition of US-backed Kurdish-led armed groups – came into effect on 20 January following a lightning advance that saw the SDF lose large swathes of territory. During the ceasefire, Syrian forces also took control of al-Aqtan prison in the city of Raqqa, which houses alleged IS prisoners and had been at the centre of a tense standoff with the SDF. More than 1,000 SDF personnel have reportedly withdrawn from Raqqa, heading in the direction of the Turkish border. A joint statement from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) warned that the insecurity had led to reduced access and the suspension of critical services for 24,000 people at al-Hol, including 15,000 children. “For several days, there has been virtually no independent verification of conditions inside the camp, or a clear picture of the safety and wellbeing of its population,” the statement said. For more context on al-Hol, read this article from November last year.
Expanded US “gag” rule could have deep repercussions
The US is set to dramatically expand its “global gag rule”, raising fresh questions about how aid groups – and even other governments – will navigate ideological restraints imposed by what was once the aid system’s largest donor. The so-called Mexico City policy blocked non-US NGOs receiving certain kinds of US funds from performing or promoting abortion as part of family planning and health services – even if using money from other donors. The rule would reportedly be expanded to target gender issues and diversity, equity, and inclusion – blocking programmes that might help transgender people, for example. It would reportedly cover all foreign assistance – which could mean funding received by foreign and domestic NGOs, UN agencies, and possibly even governments that have signed bilateral deals with the US. Aid groups are scrambling to understand the ramifications. The US recently pledged $2 billion to UN emergency response funds. Will the new rules “gag” aid agencies into compliance, or force them to choose donors? It could have deeper impacts, if the Trump administration intends it to apply to bilateral funding as well. For example, the US has signed deals with at least 15 countries to give billions in health funding.
Severe weather in east and southern Africa leaves millions in need
Severe weather is driving humanitarian emergencies across east and southern Africa. In the eastern Horn of Africa, a La Niña event has triggered one of the driest October-December rainy seasons on record – less than three years after the historic drought that scorched the region from late 2020 to early 2023. The famine early warning system, FEWS NET, estimates 20-25 million people across Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are in urgent need of food assistance. Without a surge in aid, crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions will become widespread through May. Multiple areas of Somalia already face emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of need, and FEWS NET warns “a large number of people will face outright starvation” without a full-scale response. However, in parts of southern Africa, the problem has been too much rain. As a result, nearly 12.2 million people are food insecure, with Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, and Zambia among the worst affected. Torrential rains and flooding in southern and central Mozambique have affected 600,000 people. Access bottlenecks are hampering relief operations, as roads to affected areas are largely cut off, the UN’s emergency aid coordination office, OCHA, noted.
M23 pullout raises complications in eastern DRC city
The Rwanda-backed M23 armed group has ended its abusive occupation of Uvira, a city in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s South Kivu province, but returning army troops and pro-government militias are now imperilling civilians in their place. The M23 seized Uvira in December, openly flouting a peace accord that the Congolese and Rwandan governments had just signed in Washington. Although the group initially claimed it was withdrawing, it instead shifted to a lower-profile presence, prompting renewed diplomatic pressure and a more complete pullout on 17 January. The sudden departure triggered looting, and has thrown a spotlight on Uvira’s Banyamulenge community – Congolese Tutsis of Rwandan descent who live in South Kivu. The M23, which is led largely by Congolese Tutsis, reportedly urged Banyamulenge to leave with its fighters, while the government says they were forced to leave by the rebels. Since the withdrawal, reports have emerged of Banyamulenge buildings being targeted by pro-government militias, but the M23 has also sought to capitalise on the situation, using (as it tends to do) the persecution of Tutsis as a pretext for its insurgency. Check back soon for on-the-ground reporting, and see our recent piece on Uvira for deeper context on what’s unfolding.
Weekend read
Haiti in-depth: As gang violence breeds hunger, Haitians seek homegrown solutions
“From slavery to today, control has always been about food.”
Rampant gang violence has pushed the population to new levels of hunger, highlighting the urgent need to tackle food insecurity’s underlying causes.
And finally…
Where Carney’s Davos speech missed the mark
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney caused a bit of a stir with his speech at Davos in which he acknowledged the hypocrisies of the Western-led rules-based international order and invoked Václav Havel’s famous parable of the shopkeeper who displays slogans he doesn’t believe in. Carney argued that the ritualistic invocation of principles no one truly follows has become unsustainable. “We knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused or the victim. This bargain no longer works,” he declared. Except Carney then proceeded to apply international law with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused. US threats to Greenland and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine merited mention in his speech. Western enabling of genocide in Gaza and the recent US attack on Venezuela did not. He decried the weaponisation of economic integration by “great powers” while Canada currently maintains sanctions on two dozen countries. Going forward, the prime minister averred, Canada would pursue a “principled and pragmatic” approach based on its “values”. However, this rather misses the point, if “Western values” now function much like the shopkeeper’s sign: a slogan everyone recognises, few believe, but many still ritualistically display.
