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Three years of genocide in Gaza, Tigray escalation, and a murky race for the UN’s top job: The Cheat Sheet

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Three years of Israel’s genocide in Gaza

First, there are the numbers: over 74,000 people killed, including nearly 21,000 children, with thousands more under the rubble; more than 175,000 injured, including the largest cohort of child amputees in modern history; 82% of all structures damaged or destroyed; 65% of households living in tents; 1.4 million people (67% of the population) facing crisis levels of food insecurity. Then there is the more intimate human reality: loved ones killed, imprisoned, or in exile; homes and memories erased; the unrelenting pressure of living amid enforced deprivation and the constant threat of violence. Lastly, there is the political horizon. Israel is preventing reconstruction while maintaining its blockade, and carrying out attacks as its ministers threaten complete ethnic cleansing. Meanwhile, the US-led Board of Peace presents plans with no realistic path for implementation. This is the reality for Palestinians in Gaza three years after Israel launched its genocidal military campaign following Hamas-led attacks that killed more than 1,200 people and took 251 hostages in Israel on 7 October 2023. Despite all of this, “I don’t want to leave Gaza to find a future,” says TNH contributor Rasha Abou Jalal. “I want to have a future in Gaza. That is what I want.” Listen to her thoughts, and those of other Palestinians, in the latest episode of our Rethinking Humanitarianism podcast: What Palestinians want for Gaza’s future.

Houthis strike Riyadh airport as Yemen war continues to spread

Three Saudi Arabian citizens were reportedly killed in 8 October attacks on the Riyadh airport that were claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the latest escalation in a war that has forced nearly 198,000 people to flee their homes since the start of September alone. Yemen’s Saudi-backed internationally recognised government announced a new military campaign to take back territory controlled by the Houthis on 4 October, with Saudi Arabia providing support from the air. Government-allied forces announced the following day they had taken back the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, but the Houthis also claimed major strategic gains. The only real clarity is that Yemen is, once again, the centre of a spiralling conflict with major humanitarian, domestic, and international implications. Meanwhile, The New York Times reports that the US military is readying options to restart its war against Iran, a key backer of the Houthis. For his part, President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were “productive”, and he didn’t plan to attack Iran until after the November midterm elections.

Fears of a regional war as Tigray conflict escalates

Ethiopia launched drone strikes against Eritrean troops that crossed their joint border this week, as the conflict in northern Tigray threatens to widen into an all-out regional war. The drones reportedly hit Eritrean forces and equipment multiple times around the Tigrayan city of Adigrat on 7 and 8 October, and in the deepening tensions, the two countries have severed diplomatic ties and traded accusations. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of backing a recently launched seven-member rebel group alliance that wants to take down Ethiopia’s government. Eritrea called out Ethiopia for supporting opponents of its own government, as well as looking for a pretext to seize the Eritrean port of Assab, which would give the landlocked country access to the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the last two weeks of fighting in Tigray between government forces and the alliance have dealt a new blow to a region already facing a devastating humanitarian crisis that has left close to four million people – more than half of Tigray’s population – in need. For more on what civilians in Tigray are facing, read: Tigray faces a double catastrophe: War and worsening hunger.

Rebels withdraw from Kidal in symbolic win for Mali’s army

Mali’s army has retaken the northern city of Kidal from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), after the rebels conducted what they called a “strategic withdrawal” from their northern stronghold. The FLA seized Kidal in April as part of a nationwide operation conducted alongside al-Qaeda-linked JNIM fighters, reversing its 2023 loss to Malian forces and Russian mercenaries. Control over the town is highly symbolic for the military-run government in Bamako, which has garnered national support by vowing to expand state sovereignty and territorial control. The FLA says it left Kidal without a fight after enduring airstrikes, and that its retreat is only temporary. Tens of thousands of Kidal residents had already left the city before the latest operations, but eyewitnesses say there is now “not a soul left”. Meanwhile, the US-funded hunger monitor FEWS NET warned this week that disruption to trade, livelihoods, and food access in the Kidal region is leading to emergency, and in some cases catastrophic, levels of food insecurity.

Leadership race has the UN grasping at straws

An already-opaque race to pick the new UN secretary-general is now even murkier. The Security Council held its latest closed-door “straw poll” on 7 October to test opinions on the seven remaining candidates for the UN’s top job. Presumed frontrunner Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica was the only candidate to get more “encourage” votes (9) rather than “discourage” votes (6), according to results that are not officially announced but widely leaked. It’s unclear whether any of the negative votes include the five veto-holding permanent Security Council members – or if so, how strongly they oppose her candidacy. The UN has never had a woman as secretary-general in its eight-decade history. The next straw poll could happen on 16 October, PassBlue reported, citing diplomats. The longer the impasse lasts, the more questions there will be: Are there candidates waiting in the wings, currently negotiating their viability? And what could happen if there’s no consensus pick?

Aid cuts hit crucial care for people living with HIV

The impact of aid cuts continues to ripple through the world’s most vulnerable communities, with two new reports exploring the impact on the 40.8 million people living with HIV. Uncertainty – in particular around the future of the US government’s PEPFAR programme – has caused severe shortages in HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), condoms, and antiretroviral therapy, according to a survey by the International Planned Parenthood Federation. It polled members in 40 countries, and 40% reported they had run out of one key product, and 60% had at least one product at low stock levels. HIV care systems are also struggling with workforce gaps and service disruptions. A Lancet study has measured the shortfall in Uganda and Zimbabwe – both heavily reliant on external HIV funding. It found services immediately fell following cuts in 2025, in prevention, PrEP, treatment, and testing. Given the stigma and legal challenges people with HIV already face, these disruptions mean many are likely to disengage from care entirely, the study pointed out.

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In case you missed it

MOZAMBIQUE: Mozambique’s security forces are losing a counter-insurgency war in northern Cabo Delgado because abuses against civilians are undermining community support, a new report warns. Despite receiving human rights training, Mozambican troops have repeatedly been accused of sexually exploiting displaced women, killing civilians, and committing war crimes against captured insurgents.

IRAN/LEBANON: Iran has transferred $200 million to Hezbollah to help people in Lebanon displaced by the war with Israel, according to a new Reuters report. More than a million people were forced to flee their homes because of the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and Israel’s bombing. Most have not received any substantive assistance or clarity on when and if they will be able to return.

CLIMATE: Climate disasters are driving up risks of child marriage, teenage pregnancy, and violence against girls and women, according to a new global report by Plan International. The study – centered on girls and women aged 15 to 24 – shows that the disruption in access to health and education that follows events like floods and droughts affects girls the most. Among those surveyed, 33% noted an increase in unintended pregnancies in their communities after climate disasters, 36% reported seeing more girls under 18 getting married, and 28% observed an increase in gender-based violence.

HAITI: Haiti’s ongoing security crisis is preventing elections planned for December, with officials postponing the first round of presidential and legislative polls without setting a new date. The UN says gang violence or anti-gang operations have killed or injured more than 5,700 people between 1 January and 11 September 2026, with more than 230 others kidnapped and over 1,000 women and girls raped.

VENEZUELA/US: US prosecutors have charged Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro and his wife with conspiring to commit torture, accusing them of overseeing a system of repression that included electric shock, asphyxiation, rape, starvation, and psychological torture against political opponents. The couple, who were kidnapped from Caracas on 3 January in a US military intervention, already face drug trafficking charges. Their trial is scheduled for 2027. Read this for more on what Venezuelans make of Maduro’s abduction.

KENYA: A Kenyan man has died of Ebola at a hospital in Nairobi after travelling from the Democratic Republic ‌of the Congo, which is battling the second-largest outbreak of the disease on record. Eight family members and 21 healthcare workers have been quarantined, and authorities are seeking to trace passengers and crew members who took a flight with the deceased man.

LEBANON/SYRIA: US and Lebanese authorities are protecting and financially supporting a former Syrian general wanted for crimes against humanity, according to a joint BBC-NPR investigation. Bassam al-Hassan oversaw former president Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons programme and fled to Lebanon after al-Assad’s December 2024 ouster. Sources say he is receiving protection in exchange for intelligence, including information about the American journalist Austin Tice, who was abducted in Syria in 2012.

INDONESIA: Indigenous groups and civil society organisations accused Indonesia’s government of “gross negligence” in a 7 October class-action lawsuit over devastating wildfires and toxic haze. The fires, linked to land clearing and worsened by drought, have caused at least 175,000 respiratory infections and spread pollution across southeast Asia. The plaintiffs are demanding a national emergency declaration, healthcare coverage, and prosecution of those responsible, including President Prabowo Subianto.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE: A Russian bomb struck a crowded bus stop in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, on 8 October, killing at least 33 civilians and wounding 18. The attack followed a 7 October strike on an apartment building in Pryluky that killed 22 people, including children. Civilian casualties, largely caused by missiles and drones, are surging in Ukraine: The UN reported on 16 September that 15,280 civilians were killed or injured between January and August 2026, 55% more than during the same period in 2025.

MYANMAR: The Trump administration has opened direct talks with Myanmar’s military-backed government, Reuters reported on 8 October, reversing years of diplomatic isolation following a 2021 coup. Senior US official Michael Vance reportedly met junta leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing on 15-16 September. Discussions initially focused on freeing a detained American and tackling online scam centres, but could expand to rare-earth minerals. The rapprochement raises concerns about legitimising a military accused of widespread atrocities amid an ongoing civil war.

UNITED STATES: An Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent shot and wounded a man in New York City during an attempted detention on 8 October. A 5-year-old child was also in the car where the man was shot. The shooting sparked protests in New York and is the latest violent incident involving ICE and other federal agents connected to President Trump’s mass deportation campaign.


Weekend read

  Casa del Migrante director José Luis Elías Rodríguez and long-time humanitarian volunteers in southern Texas, Kathy Harrington and Andrea Rudnik are pictured at a table discussing.

Aid cuts and continued needs: The challenges facing volunteers at the US-Mexico border

Thousands of asylum seekers and migrants remain in limbo in Mexican border cities as support networks wear thin.


And finally…

And the award goes to… international law

If Nobel Peace Prize winners are chosen to send a message, then this year’s pick is a defence of international norms and justice institutions under attack. The peace prize was awarded to South African jurist and rights lawyer Navi Pillay “for her efforts to promote peace and international law”, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced on 9 October.

Pillay has had a long career in international justice, serving at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda and the International Criminal Court, and recently chairing an independent UN Commission of Inquiry on Palestine, which found that Israel is committing genocidal acts in Gaza. Earlier, she worked as a lawyer in apartheid South Africa, defending Nelson Mandela, among others. She’s also served as the UN’s human rights chief.

“History has shown that a world operating without the rule of law is unjust, unwise, and inhumane,” the committee said in its announcement of the award. “The judges… are therefore highly deserving of our praise. But today, as these same judges are sanctioned, and their institutions are attacked, we need people of courage, vision, and determination.”

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