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Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.
On our radar
Ethiopia’s advance in Tigray raises Eritrea war fears
Ethiopian troops and pro-government Tigray Peace Force (TPF) militia took control of towns on the northern border this week as Eritrean forces – previously stationed along the Zalambessa-Fatsi line – crossed back into Eritrea. Opposition Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fighters also pulled out ahead of the government advance, heading deeper into the Tigrayan mountains. The TPLF has suffered swift military reversals since the war resumed in late September. The warm reception by some residents in the regional capital, Mekelle, as TPF leaders entered the city suggests the TPLF may have miscalculated its popular support. Although the fighting is not over – and some Eritrean troops remain inside Tigray – eyes are now on the border. Will Ethiopian forces cross to punish Asmara for backing TPLF hardliners and other ethno-centric insurgent groups – perhaps even seeking to overthrow President Isaias Afwerki – or will Addis Ababa halt them, avoiding all-out war? Should the two countries fight, the violence is likely to spill across a heavily militarised region, divided by rival coalitions. For more on potential scenarios, see: Eritrean incursions raise fears of a wider regional war in Ethiopia.
Another stumbling block for the Board of Peace
Israel is preventing the construction of a military base in Gaza that is supposed to house troops from the International Stabilization Force (ISF), a key component of Trump's 20-point peace plan, according to The Guardian. A US company was awarded a contract to build the base in August. “You can’t get in without [the ISF]. You can’t rebuild,” a source from the Board of Peace told The Guardian, speculating that Israel may allow the project to move forward after Israeli elections at the end of the month. Meanwhile, an investigation by BBC Verify found that the Israeli military has not publicly announced the outcome of 254 out of 300 incidents in which it was accused of killing or injuring people in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon that it said it was investigating between 7 October 2023 and 19 August this year. The findings match a well-documented pattern of impunity. At the international level, the US levied additional sanctions against the International Criminal Court hours after one of its former judges, South African jurist and rights lawyer Navi Pillay, won the Nobel Peace Prize. For a view from the ground, read our latest: “There is no ceasefire here”: Ten Palestinians on life in Gaza today.
A turbulent week in US-Ukrainian relations
There is no sign of the so-called energy ceasefire announced unilaterally by US President Donald Trump taking effect, as Russia and Ukraine continue to carry out attacks. In a social media post on 11 October, Trump claimed the two sides had reached an agreement to pause attacks on energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the deal was “news to me”, and Russia denied having agreed to anything. As Russia continued to attack civilian infrastructure across Ukraine, Zelenskyy announced that the Ukrainian military would resume striking Russian energy targets. Questions have also been raised about whether the US stopped sharing intelligence on incoming missile strikes with Ukraine, and why Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellite internet services was restricted. Trump has been pressuring Zelenskyy to stop attacking Russian energy targets – a key part of Ukraine’s strategy of trying to cripple Russia’s war economy – claiming that the strikes are contributing to the rising cost of diesel fuel. All of this follows Trump’s announcement on 9 October that the US had struck a deal for Russia to supply diesel to the global market – a move seen by many as a betrayal of Ukraine.
Kabila forms a new rebel coalition with the M23
Former Congolese president Joseph Kabila has announced the formation of a new rebel coalition, the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), incorporating the Rwanda-backed M23 armed group and its political wing. Kabila led DRC from 2001 to 2019, before handing power to current President Félix Tshisekedi following a rigged election that a third candidate, Martin Fayulu, actually won. Tshisekedi initially allowed Kabila to maintain influence in government, but later sidelined him and consolidated power. In recent years, Tshisekedi has repeatedly accused Kabila of backing the M23, and in September a military court sentenced the former president to death in absentia. Kabila’s move will complicate peace efforts between the DRC government and the M23, while giving Rwanda – which has long denied or downplayed its support for the group – greater scope to portray the conflict as an internal Congolese affair. How much influence Kabila will have over the M23, which has so far been concentrating its operations in the east, remains unclear. But many in DRC will recall his father, Laurent Kabila, who led another Rwanda-backed rebellion in the 1990s that swept across the country and seized power in Kinshasa.
The Grand Bargain lives to see another day
Participants in the Grand Bargain will meet in Geneva from 19-20 October to finalise next steps for the reform plan. While much time, thought, and money has been spent on the humanitarian reset, which is mainly pushed by one UN agency, it’s easy to forget the Grand Bargain is endorsed by major aid organisations, NGO networks, and donors. The reform agenda was birthed amid the spotlight and ambition of 2016’s World Humanitarian Summit. A decade later, its scope has narrowed, and the parts of the humanitarian system least keen to give up power seem the most keen to move on. Yet its backers say the Grand Bargain is the only forum where different parts of the system – from local organisations to UN agencies and donors – have a seat at the table. They say hard-won, if incremental, progress on things like localisation, risk-sharing, and quality funding has benefited the entire sector, and were catalysed at the Grand Bargain level. The next stage – to be agreed at the upcoming meeting – will be slimmer and more focused on country-level change. It will also get a brand new acronym: Collective Action Platform for the Grand Bargain.
A third of people warned about disasters but unable to act, poll finds
While 80% of disaster-impacted adults globally received at least one warning over the past five years, 36% of them were unable to evacuate, seek shelter, or otherwise respond to the new circumstances, according to the 2026 World Risk Poll Report. The report – published by the Lloyd’s Register Foundation on 13 October – is based on 143,000 interviews conducted by Gallup in 140 countries and territories throughout 2025. The gap between warning and action disproportionately affects lower-income countries, with only 36% of recipients in southern Africa and South Asia able to respond, compared with 86% in North America and 79% in East Asia. Bridging the gap from warning to action requires a household plan and an individual belief that a person can protect their family from a disaster, according to the report. Without a plan or sense of agency, only 27% of warning recipients took action, compared to 83% of people equipped with both.
Weekend read
As South Sudan plans for elections, a town counts the cost of war
Returning families in Akobo confront destroyed homes, looted hospitals, and food shortages.
And finally…
An exercise in UN-style democracy
A “wholly uncompetitive” vote saw 15 new members elected to the UN Human Rights Council, in a process rights watchdog ISHR called “a mockery of an election”. Member states at the UN General Assembly put forward only as many candidates as there were available seats, turning a nominal election into a murky appointment process. Of course, UN leadership is a model of backroom dealing, not of transparent consensus-building or democratic principles. After all, the process to pick a new secretary-general for the entire UN involves closed-door straw polls, colour codes, vetoes wielded by five countries, and bartering and tradeoffs on which the public has little say. The next straw poll to test opinions on the seven remaining secretary-general candidates is set for 16 October. Naturally, it’ll be behind closed doors.
