Bid to avert all-out war

The international community is trying to avert an all-out war in Somalia amid reports that forces of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) are massing in the south of the country, in anticipation of a showdown with forces of the Transitional Federal Government, a diplomat said on Wednesday.

"Our aim is to try to avert any escalation of the conflict into an all-out war," Mario Raffaelli, the Italian special envoy to Somalia, said. "We want them at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield."

Raffaelli was one of the European Union diplomats who met the leadership of the UIC on Tuesday in Mogadishu.

He said the Europeans "will deliver a similar message to the TFG [Transitional Federal Government]".

A source at the talks, who requested anonymity, said the diplomats had also wanted "to sound out their [the UIC’s] views" on the deployment of peacekeepers in the country.

"Their reaction was negative but that was to be expected," he said.

Tensions have been rising since the United Nations Security Council last week approved plans to send peacekeepers to protect the transitional government in Baidoa and partially lift an arms embargo imposed on the country.

The UIC is opposed to the deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission in the country.

Forces of the UIC and those of the transitional government have been massing troops around Baidao, the seat of the interim government, prompting some residents to leave their homes, amid fears that fighting could break out at any time, witnesses said.

A civil society source in Mogadishu told IRIN: "There is mounting worry among people that an all-out war is coming and soon." He said efforts such as the EU's were welcome "and I hope they succeed".

Attempts to contact the TFG were unsuccessful but the UIC said it would welcome "all efforts aimed at avoiding war".

"The first step in that direction should be the removal of the Ethiopian troops from our country," Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali, the UIC's Vice-Chairman, said.

Ali said the UIC "was fully supportive of continuing with the dialogue but we cannot negotiate with a gun to our head".

The Ethiopian government has denied sending a fighting force to Somalia, but has acknowledged that its "military advisers" were helping Somalia's transitional government.

The partial lifting of the arms embargo has created fears of a regional conflict in Somalia, which could include Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. A recent UN report named the countries of supporting the TFG and UIC respectively.

Somalia's transitional government was installed in late 2004 in an effort to bring peace and security to the Horn of Africa country, which has not had an effective government for 16 years.

In June this year, UIC militias defeated warlords who had controlled the city since 1991, following the collapse of the regime headed by Somalia's last president, Muhammad Siyad Barre.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has expressed concern over reports of imminent war in Somalia, as increased insecurity could worsen the humanitarian crisis. An estimated 444,000 people are already affected by flooding, with the "worst-case scenario" putting as many as 900,000 Somalis in danger of displacement if the flooding continues in December, according to OCHA-Somalia.

"The consequences of any widespread conflict would be disastrous, including massive internal movement, civilian casualties, and further livelihood said last week.

Also see:
SOMALIA: A question of balance

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