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Election trouble in South Sudan, the UN’s leadership hunt, and a new global risk map: The Cheat Sheet

A weekly read to keep you in the loop on humanitarian issues.

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Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.

On our radar

Mass displacement as Yemenis flee shifting frontlines

Yemen’s war is shifting and ramping up quickly, forcing more than 104,000 people to flee their homes across the country’s west coast in just over two weeks. That number is quickly changing, given how rapidly entire displacement camps are emptying out, frontlines are moving, and both Saudi Arabia-backed groups and Iran-linked Houthi rebels appear to be digging their heels in. Since the Houthis (officially called Ansar Allah) took the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb strait on 11 September, Saudi warplanes have been bombing inside Yemen, and Houthi drones have hit inside Saudi Arabia. Casualties are rising, and multiple healthcare facilities have been attacked. More than 2,800 people have fled to Djibouti, and those who are internally displaced have had to leave in a hurry, with almost nothing, in search of safety. This is a massive escalation of the war and an already severe humanitarian crisis, and it’s worth keeping in mind that, even before this flare-up, Yemen’s economy was in a downward spiral – worsened by the US-Iran war – with many people struggling to buy food. Read more here

South Sudan polls remain in doubt as government fires election chief

With just weeks to go before South Sudan’s long-delayed elections – supposed to be its first since independence – President Salva Kiir has thrown yet another obstacle in the way, this time removing the head of the country’s election commission. No reason was given for the change, but it's been interpreted as yet another stalling tactic from the government, which announced prior deferrals in 2022 and 2024 having failed to put in place the required legal, financial, logistical, and security arrangements. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan said last week that many of the conditions for peaceful and credible elections are missing, and the east African regional bloc IGAD called for an “inclusive dialogue” between political parties. Such a dialogue would currently prove tricky given opposition leader Riek Machar is standing trial for treason. He was suspended from office last year as first vice president by Kiir, and there has been renewed conflict between his SPLM-IO forces and government troops. The two sides had signed a post-war power-sharing accord in 2018 that was supposed to guide the country through a transition and culminate in elections.

Somaliland offers Trump a deal on recognition

Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera Port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane Yemen’s Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits) and Israel – the only country to recognise its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among others in the US establishment, is pushing Somaliland’s case as a “bulwark” against the Houthis – and even Chinese influence. Meanwhile, the so-called “Berbera axis” has redefined Red Sea competition over Africa’s coastline, accelerating regional fragmentation. The four-party coalition of Somaliland, Israel, Ethiopia, and the UAE – and by association Sudan’s RSF – directly challenges the Türkiye-Saudi Arabia-Qatar bloc supporting Somali sovereignty. Türkiye’s direct military backing of Mogadishu – including strengthening its federal army – is a source of frustration for the coalition, and increasingly Somalia’s political opposition.

Gaza building collapse and attacks highlight Israeli ceasefire violations

At least 21 people – including 11 children – are dead and dozens more wounded following the collapse of a building housing displaced families in Gaza City on 16 September. The building, badly damaged by Israeli bombing, collapsed overnight as people were sleeping and fell on nearby tents. About 90% of Gaza’s population of around 2.1 million people remains displaced almost a year after Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement last October. Thousands are living in unsafe structures as Israel continues to block reconstruction efforts while also carrying out attacks as well as seemingly random acts of violence. A double-tap Israeli drone strike in Gaza City killed Palestinian paramedic Sharif Shadi Labad and 15-year-old Mohammad Abdul Zinati, when Zinati rushed to help Labad after the first strike. Israel claimed Labad was a Hamas operative. On 12 September, 27-year-old Iman Shalouf, who was nearly eight months pregnant, was shot in the head while she was in her tent in the al-Mawasi area of Khan Younis. Both Shalouf and her unborn child died. More than 1,380 people have been killed and nearly 4,800 injured in Israeli attacks since the ceasefire agreement was signed. Continue reading below for more on the US’s pending arms deal with Israel. 

UNGA: Leadership hunt may grab the spotlight, but neglected crises loom large

As high-level meetings for a new session of the General Assembly open in New York, the UN finds itself in desperate need of rejuvenation – and still in search of a leader. The closed-door race-walk to pick a new Secretary-General will be top of mind. The successor to current SG António Guterres will be expected to revitalise multilateralism, leverage diplomacy to end wars, guide UN renewal in a time of deep cuts and scepticism, and hack a new path to relevance for a beleaguered world body – easy, right? Humanitarian issues aren’t usually the main focus during the politics and pageantry of high-level week, when world leaders descend on New York and the rank-and-file network and nibble on finger food amid midtown Manhattan’s extra-snarled traffic. But crises are ever-present, especially now – from Gaza’s future; to the latest escalation in Yemen; to Sudan’s conflict (globally neglected despite foreign meddling); to who’s responsible for Nepal’s catastrophic climate-worsened floods.

War fears redraw the global risk map

Large-scale war has moved from a distant danger to one of the world’s most immediate threats, according to the UN’s 2026 Global Risk Report. The report surveyed 1,300 respondents from governments, civil society, business, international organisations, and expert communities, and reflects perceptions, not predictions. It also reflects biases – half the survey’s respondents were from Europe and North America. More than a third of those surveyed believe large-scale war will have a major global impact within a year, and three-quarters within seven years. Compared to the prior survey in 2024, war has jumped 16 places in the report's ranking of how imminent the 28 risks it tracks are. Political risks today outstrip environmental concerns with large-scale war and geopolitical tensions each ranking among the top five risks in six of seven world regions. Yet confidence in the multilateral system has fallen, and 86% say risk reduction is underfunded. That unease is shaping policy in the UK which is updating its decades-old “war book” and urging citizens to prepare for disruption by stockpiling canned food and water. Still, experts cited by the BBC describe a “crisis of disbelief” and low levels of psychological preparedness across Western Europe.

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In case you missed it

CUBA: An outbreak of waterborne diseases is straining Cuba’s dilapidated health system. Lack of infrastructure maintenance coupled with lengthy power outages exacerbated by the US-imposed oil blockade have halted pumping, severely disrupting water supply. Cubans report that the little running water they receive is murky, greenish, foul-smelling, and contains larvae. In March, the Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO) was already warning that water- and food-borne diseases presented a “very high risk” for public health. 

EBOLA: The World Health Organization has reported “encouraging signs" in the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with transmission declining in Ituri province, the worst affected area. Still, the overall epidemic is continuing to grow and cases have spread across seven provinces.

FIJI: Fiji declared HIV a national crisis on 15 September after recording 2,016 new diagnoses in 2025, up 27% from the previous year. UNAIDS said new infections have risen twelvefold since 2010, with an estimated 9,100 people living with HIV. Only 39% know their status, and 22% receive treatment. The government plans to expand testing, PrEP availability, and harm-reduction services, including needle exchanges, as sexual transmission and drug use via injection drive the surge.

IRAN/US: A UN fact-finding mission has found “reasonable grounds” to believe that the US committed war crimes in two airstrikes in Iran by “launching indiscriminate attacks that killed or injured civilians or damaged civilian objects.” The February strikes in question hit a school and a sports facility on the same day. More than 150 people, including 120 children, were killed at the primary school in Minab, southern Iran.

MIGRATION: Remittances sent home to low- and middle-income countries by migrants have nearly doubled in the past decade to over $728 billion in 2025, according to a new UN report. Over the same period, the number of migrants from those countries has increased by 28%. Around 220 million people living in diaspora are helping to support an estimated 1.1 billion relatives. By comparison, spending on official development assistance – including humanitarian aid – totalled $174.3 billion in 2025. 

MIGRATION: The International Organization for Migration defended its role assisting people deported by the US to third countries, saying on 15 September it only steps in after arrival, at receiving governments’ request, and where safeguards exist. The agency said it had assisted about 800 people since 2025. It stressed that accepting government funding does not mean endorsing deportation policies. The statement followed growing criticism that IOM’s involvement may help legitimise or enable US third-country deportations. 

NEPAL: Rapid warming caused by climate change in the Himalayas likely escalated the complex mix of factors that caused the catastrophic floods that killed at least 1,300 people, and left 5,000 still missing, in Nepal last month, according to new research. The study points to a range of signals with well-established links to climate change: warming permafrost, glacier degradation, thawing ice, and excess rain at higher elevations caused by months of record high temperatures.

SOMALIA/US: The US is ramping up its air war against al-Shabab and Islamic State insurgents with more than 80 strikes recorded since the beginning of the year. The recent focus has been on al-Shabab in southern Somalia, a shift from an earlier concentration on IS positions in northeastern Puntland. Part of the reason for the new scale of strikes is the Pentagon has been given full targeting authority by Mogadishu, relaxing the requirement of prior political approval. Historically, US airstrikes have also hit civilian targets.

SYRIA: Protests broke out in Syria this week after the government announced a hike in fuel prices. Demonstrations took place in many parts of the country, but there has been a particular focus on protests in the Kurdish-majority northeast Syria, where there have been tensions and other demonstrations as the country moves ahead with integrating the mostly autonomous region’s army and institutions with the central government.

TÜRKIYE: Türkiye launched a sweeping crackdown on LGBTQ+ groups on 13 September, raiding organisations and detaining dozens across several cities. By 15 September, at least 31 people had been jailed pending trial, and 126 protesters detained. Authorities say the “My Family is Safe” operation targets obscenity and protects children and family values. Amnesty International said more than 160 people are facing investigations, and over 180 social media accounts have been blocked or restricted.

US/ISRAEL: The Trump administration approved a $2.8 billion arms deal with Israel covering around 60,000 bombs, bringing total arms sales to Israel since Trump returned to office to over $12 billion. The package includes some of the most destructive weapons in the US arsenal. The world’s leading experts say Israel has committed war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide in Gaza, including using US weapons

VENEZUELA: The repressive apparatus of the Venezuelan state remains “largely intact” despite the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro by the US on 3 January, according to a new report by a UN fact-finding mission. The government’s “colectivos” – armed groups that persecute dissent – have not been dismantled, and torture continues. Sixty-four cases have been identified since Maduro’s ouster. Arbitrary arrests also haven’t stopped, detention conditions are dismal, and many detainees have died. 


Weekend read

British-held asylum seeker dies by apparent suicide in Eswatini

KP spent two years in a legal limbo after a British authority granted him international protection.

And finally…

Punishment of pro-Palestinian speech meets popular resistance 

The internet has been buzzing after rapper Macklemore was dropped from singer Ed Sheeran’s tour for saying “free Palestine” on stage at a US concert. Billionaire Robert Kraft, the owner of an upcoming tour venue and a longstanding donor and advocate for Israel, and the owners of several other venues threatened to cancel Sheeran’s shows if Macklemore remained on the bill. The tour’s promoter removed Macklemore, and Sheeran planned to go ahead, saying he “wasn’t complicit” because “I choose not to speak publicly”. However, all of Sheeran’s support acts for the remainder of his North and South America tour withdrew in solidarity with Macklemore and Palestine. Perhaps flying further under the radar, the Israeli documentary NAZA debuted at the Venice Film Festival on 10 September to a record 25-minute standing ovation. The film lays bare the AI algorithm used by Israel to select targets in the Gaza Strip as well as the biases and disregard for civilian lives baked into the system. The film won the Special Jury Prize at Cannes, but Israel’s minister of culture accused the directors – Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor – of treason, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to strip them of citizenship. Right-wing activists protested outside of the home of Szor’s parents, and explicit calls for violence are circulating on right-wing chat groups. More than 1,500 film-industry figures, including prominent Israelis, have since signed a petition supporting Abraham and Szor and condemning the campaign against them.

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