Iraq's future hangs in the balance

Iraqi society has reacted with mixed sentiments to new signals from the White House indicating a change in US policy in Iraq. With insecurity and humanitarian crises escalating in the country, the one thing all sides agree is that something has to change.

"This issue [of disarming militias] must be tackled as soon as possible because the armed groups will contribute to a large-scale civil war and more blood will be shed as a result of sectarian violence," said Dr. Saad al-Hadithi, a Baghdad-based analyst who lectures in political science at the University of Baghdad.

In his view, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki should be decisive and disarm militias and other armed groups, otherwise his government will collapse and chaos will spread if and when US-led forces leave.

Al-Hadithi made his remarks on Tuesday following a meeting on Monday between US President George W. Bush and members of Iraq Study Group, a bi-partisan group set up by Bush to seek consensus on a new approach for the war in Iraq.

White House press secretary Tony Snow described the meeting as a ‘conversation’, adding that it was not a presentation of alternatives but rather an assessment of the situation on the ground now.

The group, headed by former Secretary of State James Baker and former Democratic congressman Lee Hamilton, will release its findings before the end of the year.

Baker had indicated the group’s recommendations would fall somewhere between a strategy for US troop withdrawal and the stay-the-course policy.

"The US administration is under continuing pressure and seeks political reforms to leave Iraq in order not to face global rage after their departure [from Iraq]," al-Hadithi added.

However, a prominent commander of the al-Mahdi army, Iraq’s most fearful and influential militia under Shi’ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, said his group would not disarm because that would make Shi’ite Arabs vulnerable to attacks by the Sunni Arab extremists.

"We will not lay down our weapons as our rivals [Sunni insurgents] are killing us every day," he said on condition of anonymity. "We are protecting Shi’ites as well as the government from collapse in front of those Takfiris [a reference to Sunni extremists].”

For Mahmod Naji, a 66-year-old retired Major General in the former Iraqi army, the best solution was to "internationalise" the coalition forces in Iraq by replacing US soldiers with UN-affiliated ones. “Otherwise, Iraq will be given on a ‘golden plate’ to the [Muslim] fundamentalists, local gangs and neighbouring countries,” he told IRIN.

"With the coming of the international forces, everything set up after the occupation should be cancelled and a new political process should be started from scratch," added Naji, who served in the Iraqi army for nearly 30 years before his retirement in 1987.

Nassira Hamid, a 60-year-old economics teacher, said that when US forces leave Iraq, the country will witness a large-scale civil war. "Possibilities of the civil war will be increased as Sunni and Shi'ite political and religious leaders will resort to violence as self-defence against the other side's violence," she said.

"I see no hope for Iraq's future as evil faces evil," she added.

sm/ar/ed