US State Department emergency projections

Nine African countries are among 20 humanitarian emergencies in the world, identified by a report released recently by the United States National Intelligence Council. The report, "Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002", predicts that the international community will continue to provide aid to these countries but that resources will remain below needs. Internal conflict, severe government repression, and natural disasters are some of the primary causes of the crises that have resulted in humanitarian emergencies, according to an introductory summary of the annual survey conducted by the council, a US government strategic analysis group. The report places Burundi among five ongoing emergencies in the world that are causing almost 20 million people to be in need of humanitarian aid as internally displaced persons, refugees, or others in need. Other countries are Afghanistan, Columbia, North Korea and Sudan. "All these emergencies show signs of worsening through 2002," the report said. In addition, humanitarian conditions may further deteriorate in populous countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Indonesia, it warned. Burundi, Sudan and Tajikistan are other countries where humanitarian conditions are likely to deteriorate. It noted that 11 of the emergencies were in countries experiencing internal conflict - Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia, DRC, Indonesia, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan and Uganda. Two other countries - Iraq and North Korea - are facing emergency due largely to severe government repression, the report said. The remaining six - Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Yugoslavia - are described as humanitarian emergencies that have entered the transitional stage beyond prolonged conflict, repressive government policies, and/or major natural disasters. The report noted that sub-Saharan Africa is the region at greatest risk of a major new or significantly worse humanitarian emergency through December 2002. "Most of sub-Saharan Africa suffers from abject poverty, intense ethnic rivalries, and grossly inadequate communications and transportation infrastructure conditions that make the region especially vulnerable to humanitarian emergencies and hinder response efforts." It also warned that genocidal conflicts aimed at annihilating all or part of a racial, religious, or ethnic group, and conflicts caused by other crimes against humanity such as forced large-scale expulsions of populations are particularly likely to generate massive and intractable humanitarian needs. Zimbabwe, Kenya, Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria are African countries listed among seven potential emergencies. Food shortages and political violence in Zimbabwe put it in this category. As for Kenya, prolonged drought and rising political and ethnic tensions in the run-up to presidential and parliamentary elections in December 2002 renders the country a potential emergency. According to the report, tens of thousands of economic migrants and foreign workers are likely to flee Cote d'Ivoire in the coming months if the government resorts to xenophobia as a tool to discredit its primary opposition, much of whose support comes from immigrants and Muslims. In Nigeria, the probability of humanitarian emergency is low through December 2002, but the impact of such an emergency would be significant, the report said. The country's challenges include poor economic performance and ethnic instability, it added. "We judge that major donor countries will continue to respond quickly and provide substantial amounts of humanitarian aid in short-term emergencies resulting from natural disasters and in severe new emergencies caused by conflict or government repression," the report said. "Funding for long-lasting crises, including many in Africa, will, however, continue to fall well short of targeted needs unless signs of achieving a settlement emerge." The 20 countries are: Afghanistan, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Colombia, DRC, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iraq, North Korea, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Tajikistan and Yugoslavia.