Earthquake threat looms large

Naeme Khalil, 80, is inspecting the construction of his new three-storey home in the village of Shour in south Lebanon. Three years ago, the building was destroyed by an Israeli missile during the war with Hezbollah, which killed about 1,200 Lebanese and displaced one million .



Today, the area is peaceful, but unprepared for a potentially more devastating threat: an earthquake.



Although Lebanon is crisscrossed by fault lines, the Dead Sea System separating the giant African and Asian plates causes seismologists the greatest concern. It is the deepest and most deadly faultline in the Middle East, snaking its way from Ethiopia through the Aqaba straits, up into south Lebanon and the Bekaa valley.



South Lebanon is categorised as a zone three and four on a scale indicating the frequency and force of expected earthquakes, which equates to potential tremors measuring up to 7.5 on the Richter scale.



The last major earthquake in 1759 measured seven and killed 40,000 people in Beirut and Damascus. Experts forecast major earthquakes on the faultline will occur every 250 to 300 years.



“Which means we are due one, although we cannot accurately predict when,” said Mohamed Harajli, professor of engineering at the American University of Beirut.



Between February and July last year some 800 tremors ranging from 2.3 to 5.1 Richter shook the south, said Moueen Hamze of Lebanon's National Scientific Research Centre. Frightened residents of Srifa, a village a few kilometres from Shour, spent weeks camping out in the school playground.



“Srifa was an early warning,” General Maroun Kraish, who leads the crisis management and early warning committee established shortly after the Srifa quake, told IRIN.



“The south is a prototype for the rest of Lebanon,” Kraish said. “It is a suitable place for drills and it is the area most likely to be hit by an earthquake.” With the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, the Lebanese Army is due to hold a major earthquake drill this month.

Photo: Annasofie Flamand/IRIN

Naeme Khalil knows his new home is not earthquake proof but said because of inflation and delays in compensation he had to buy cheap building materials

“Missed opportunity”



The overall response to the threat of earthquakes in south Lebanon has been slow and scattered, particularly in raising awareness among residents rebuilding their homes after the war.



The Norwegian Refugee Council’s programme manager in Lebanon, Richard Evans, said the issue of rebuilding quake-resistant homes in the south first arose from a study with the University of York into housing compensation after the war.



The report found that delays in compensation payments, rising inflation, lack of building regulations and a lack of awareness of the earthquake threat meant that most rebuilt homes are not safe.



“These factors have resulted in people buying poor quality materials and as a result the houses are weak,” said Evans. “This has been a missed opportunity to upgrade houses in the south to withstand any future earthquake.”



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