Peace talks resume in Kenya

The second phase of Sudanese peace talks, a follow-up to the talks in July which resulted in a historic agreement between the main warring parties - the Khartoum Government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A)- opened in the southwestern Kenyan town of Machakos on Monday.

The July talks resulted in the Machakos Protocol, in which both parties agreed that a referendum for the population in southern Sudan - the scene of fierce fighting between Khartoum and the SPLM/A since 1983 - be conducted in six years' time to choose whether to secede or remain in a united Sudan.

The protocol was hailed as a breakthrough, but renewed fighting since it was signed has been seen as a setback, raising fears of lack of commitment to the accord on the part of the signatories.

The Brussels-based think-tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has described the second phase of the current talks as "the best", but "shaky", chance for a just peace in Sudan since the civil war broke out after Khartoum imposed the Islamic Shari'ah law throughout the country in 1983.

In a statement released on Monday, ICG said an agreement would be hard to reach on the detailed issues currently on the table, and the international mediators would have a huge responsibility in keeping the talks on track. According to the ICG statement, the Machakos Protocol of 20 July, and other agreed matters of principle still have to be "translated into a detailed peace agreement".

Matters yet to be agreed on include, the geographic definition of the south, power sharing, wealth sharing, and security arrangements, it said. "As so often, the devil is lurking in the detail, and his appearance here seems guaranteed when either side doesn't like the direction the talks are headed", the ICG President, Gareth Evans, said in the statement.

Moreover, the protocol was ambiguous on the issue of the relationship between religion and state, ICG said. "The issue will remain a live one until an agreement is reached on a constitution for the central government that is neutral on religion," it went on to note.

The talks, which are taking place under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) under the chairmanship of Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi, are receiving support from the governments of the US, the UK, Norway and Italy. Although this is the first time for the US government to directly participate in the mediation of the Sudanese war, analysts argue that its commitment to the talks is vital to the peace process.

Muhammad Ahmad Dirdeiry, the Sudanese charge d'affaires in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, told IRIN on Monday that he was optimistic that the second phase of the talks would make further progress. "We are very optimistic that once we have agreed on most of the contentious points, we will agree on other issues as well," he said. "This, of course, doesn't mean the negotiations will be easy. It will be very tough. We are going to have real negotiations."

In order to make the talks a success, mediators would need to "use their authority" to ensure that the line on the self-determination referendum was held, press for compromises that promote national unity, create mechanisms for broader Sudanese participation in the peace process, and craft a multilateral strategy of incentives and pressures to be deployed at the request of the IGAD mediation team, ICG said.

"A referendum on unity or secession at the end of the agreed six-year transition period remains the best insurance that the government will actually implement its part of the agreement, because it will want to do everything before then to maximise the chances of a southern vote for national unity," the ICG statement noted.

It also noted the need for Egypt to be brought into this strategy "as it has a vested interest in seeing a more inclusive, less extreme government in Khartoum".

Cairo, which has been spearheading a separate peace initiative for Sudan with the help of Libya, has opposed the Machakos Protocol, which, it said, raised the possibility of secession of the south from the north - a prospect which was against Egypt's interests, according to Egyptian media. The Egyptian newspaper, Al-Wafd, on 8 August, published an interview in which Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Mahir said the Machakos agreement had taken his government by surprise and that it felt excluded from the talks.

"I want to stress that Egypt's relationship with Sudan is vital. Consequently, Egypt cannot forsake Sudan under any circumstances. If the south secedes from the north after six years, it would mean we have failed," he said in the interview.

"Cairo's opposition to a referendum must be discussed at the highest level between the Egyptian and US governments in order convince Egypt that the unity of Sudan would be best guaranteed if it is voluntary and based on just and equitable political and economic arrangements," ICG stressed in its statement.

"The worst outcome would be an unreformed regime in power in the north and the SPLA alone in charge of the south. This would be a recipe for continued war or eventual secession. To promote democracy and protect human rights in Sudan, the mediation effort should also ensure that the national constitution is neutral on the issue of religion (while leaving open the option of the northern part of the country embracing Shari'ah in whole or part)," ICG said.