Escalating US-Iran war, DRC dialogue, and aid worker kidnappings: The Cheat Sheet

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Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.

On our radar

US-Iran war escalates, intensifying wider fallout

As the Cheat Sheet goes to press, US President Donald Trump is threatening the “largest-yet” attacks on Iran. Trump previously threatened to destroy Iranian civilisation, and on 22 July said that the US would bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for each ship attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Retaliatory strikes on civilian infrastructure of this sort are blatant violations of international law. Fifty-five people have been killed in US strikes on Iran, and hundreds more wounded, since the ceasefire collapsed earlier this month, according to the Iranian Ministry of Health. Meanwhile, four members of the US military were killed in Iranian strikes on bases in Jordan and Iraq, and Iran has continued to target other countries hosting US military bases in the region. The financial cost of the war for the US is over $37.5 billion since February. By comparison, UN-led humanitarian response funds have received $12.5 billion in funding from donors so far this year. Meanwhile, the already substantial humanitarian impacts of the US war are set to expand, with global oil prices once again rising and with Houthi authorities in Yemen now launching attacks on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, another key route for global shipping and the world’s oil supply.

Hunger rises in Yemen as it is drawn into US-Iran fray

As Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who control the north of the country, jump into the US-Iran fray with attacks on Saudi oil tankers and a promise to hit any tanker that uses Saudi ports, there’s much more than a rise in global oil prices at risk. Yemen has been at war for more than 11 years, with the Houthis fighting a pro-government coalition that is nominally led by Saudi Arabia, although it has pulled back in recent years. For the most part, the devastating war’s frontlines have been quiet for years, although there is no official peace and hunger is once again rising to dangerous levels because of ongoing displacement, economic collapse, and low aid funding. Now Yemenis have to worry about an escalation of conflict, not just in the neighbouring seas, but also in the country. Iran – which backs the Houthis – reportedly already transported military equipment and advisors to bolster their ability to blockade the Red Sea. If Saudi Arabia and its allies respond with military force, a conflict that is mostly cold but is still destroying lives through hunger and a lack of clean water and healthcare will only get worse.

Government and opposition dialogue in DRC met with skepticism

The Congolese government has yielded to long-standing calls for a national dialogue, but questions remain over who will be invited and what will be discussed. Kinshasa appears to want the talks to focus on forging national unity against Rwandan aggression in the east, where Kigali is backing the M23/AFC insurgency. It appears to have already ruled out M23/AFC participation, and the rebels seem to be counting themselves out too. In their absence, dialogue will likely revolve around the ruling party and political opposition. It’s unclear whether the government will tackle the opposition's central grievance: President Félix Tshisekedi's push to change the constitution, potentially allowing him to seek a third term. Opposition groups had planned a 22 July protest to oppose a power grab, but suspended it after the dialogue announcement. Analysts seem skeptical that a dialogue will amount to much. Rather than fostering reconciliation, past dialogues have served as vehicles for the government to co-opt rivals by doling out ministry posts, jobs in state-owned companies, and other spoils.

Horn of Africa’s “polycrisis” threatens millions

Africa’s Greater Horn region is facing a looming “polycrisis” – a buzzword coined to describe how multiple simultaneous emergencies can amplify each other. In this case, it’s the overlaps of drought, rising prices, and conflict. An extremely strong El Niño threatens the livelihoods of millions of people in parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Ethiopia – just a few years after the historically bad 2020-2023 drought. The widening Gulf war, which is snarling food and fuel shipments and driving up inflation, could push millions more into acute hunger by the end of the year. Stuck on those ships is fertiliser, with delayed deliveries (and price hikes) expected to hurt next year’s harvest – and potentially beyond. Long-running local conflicts are also undermining the region’s rural economies: the al-Shabab insurgency in Somalia, the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia (and its potential to turn into a much wider conflagration), and Sudan’s ongoing nightmare. All of this is happening as the aid industry faces the leanest of times and amid international diplomacy’s ever greater enfeeblement.

What’s behind rising arrests and kidnappings of aid workers

Aid worker kidnappings doubled last year to over 230, and some 280 were also detained or arrested, according to new summary stats from the Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD), which point to an expanding problem of intimidation and threats by states and armed groups. The killings of 350 aid workers last year also sits at historical highs – with more than half of those in Gaza. States and armed groups are flouting humanitarian norms and laws, and security specialists say deepening donor aid cuts have also drained organisational resources to stay safe. AWSD researchers cite a “growing criminalisation, control, and distrust of aid” for the rise in detentions and kidnapping. This may be the most stark in Yemen, where Houthi authorities have arrested dozens of people, and some have died in detention. Armed actors “know that kidnapping a team suspends operations across an entire region”, a recent Humanitarian Practice Network analysis warned. “Humanitarian protection policy and the operational practices that implement it need to catch up.”

Long-term political violence leads to increased interpersonal violence

The long-term exposure of young people to political violence significantly increases the risk of interpersonal violence, new research shows. Data from more than 35,400 young people aged 13 to 24 in nine African countries found that exposure to long-running violence – 15 years or more – was linked to heightened abuse at home, among peers, or at school. However, short-term exposure (violence occurring over one to five years) showed no significant association. The researchers suggest five explanations for the divergence, including: a culture of insecurity, in which constant political unrest creates high levels of stress; social learning, where violence is witnessed and normalised; shifting social norms that tolerate violence more broadly; economic hardship, which increases the chances of exploitation; and the erosion of community trust and social safety nets. Humanitarian responses, they note, should not focus only on a child’s emergency needs and immediate circumstances, but also seek to counter “the long shadow of past conflicts”.

In case you missed it

COLOMBIA: Attacks on education by armed groups have affected over 12,000 students and teachers, according to new data collected by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) between January and June 2026. Attacks include the deployment of explosive devices on school grounds, military occupation of schools, crossfire, and forced recruitment of minors. For more on Colombia's decades-long internal conflict, see our series: Colombians fighting for their own peace.

DROUGHT: Europe’s extreme heat is fuelling drought across the continent and evaporating water supplies, research by World Weather Attribution warns. Scientists from 12 countries sifted through rainfall and soil moisture trends, finding that record-breaking heat, worsened by climate change, is driving the drought.

ECUADOR: Joint counternarcotics operations between the US and Ecuador have led to multiple abuses, according to a new Human Rights Watch report. The violations include arbitrary detentions and torture, strikes on farms with no link to organised crime groups, and drone attacks against three fishing boats that left several crew members injured or missing. Last month, the prosecutor investigating the attacks in Ecuador was shot dead in the coastal city of Manta.

EUROPE/ISRAEL: Amnesty International says EU states that allow the sale of Israel Bonds – issued by the Israeli government to raise money from individuals and small business – risk complicity in the genocide in Gaza. Luxembourg’s financial authority currently allows these bonds to be sold in the EU, but this approval expires at the end of August.

GLOBAL: The UN’s annual report on The State of Food Security and Nutrition in The World estimates that 7.8% of the world’s population faced hunger in 2025, an improvement from 8.1% in 2024. But there are still massive disparities between regions and urban and rural areas, with 56.6% of Africa’s population experiencing food insecurity in 2025 compared to 8.7% in North America and Europe.

LATIN AMERICA/SPAIN: Two-thirds of the nearly 1.2 million undocumented people who applied to regularise their immigration status in Spain through an extraordinary process launched last April are from Latin America, according to official data. Colombians account for the largest number of applicants, at 26%, while Venezuelans (at 11.8%) were the third largest, after Moroccans. Spanish authorities said that some 840,000 applicants now hold temporary permits to live and work legally while their cases are decided. Applications closed on 30 June.

LEBANON: Israeli strikes reportedly injured two paramedics in south Lebanon on 23 July, with attacks continuing and Israel occupying large swathes of south Lebanon even as Lebanon and Israel begin to implement a US-brokered deal (rejected by Hezbollah) that will see Israeli forces withdraw from two “pilot zones”.

MALI: US officials have told the Washington Post that the Trump administration is weighing military action against the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM group in Mali, potentially making it the eighth nation where Trump has ordered strikes since his second term began.

MYANMAR: Efforts to target cyber-scams by cutting off Starlink internet access in Southeast Asian countries is inadvertently hitting humanitarian lifelines in parts of Myanmar, dozens of civil society groups say. Cutting the internet means cutting off humanitarian coordination, early airstrike warnings, and independent media and human rights documentation.

NIGERIA: Human Rights Watch (HRW) has criticised Nigerian authorities for failing to prioritise higher ranking Boko Haram suspects responsible for atrocities and serious international crimes in on-going mass trials. More than a thousand defendants have been prosecuted in a series of trials that began in April, but these have primarily focussed on low-level suspects. HRW also faulted the state’s legal cases that often-lacked witnesses or circumstantial evidence.

SOUTH AFRICA: Nigeria and Ghana have threatened to put “Afrophobic” attacks against foreign nationals in South Africa on the agenda of the next African Union summit next year. Close to 1,500 Nigerians and almost 1,000 Ghanaians were repatriated after anti-immigrant groups issued a 30 June deadline for undocumented migrants to leave the country. Tens of thousands of other nationals, mainly from nearby countries, fled South Africa for their home countries.

SOUTH SUDAN: More than 10,000 civilians have reportedly been displaced in South Sudan’s Central Equatoria state following clashes between Ugandan and South Sudanese soldiers. The fighting marks a sharp escalation in a long-running border dispute.

VENEZUELA: A month after the 24 June twin earthquakes hit the country, Venezuela's emergency shows no signs of relenting. By 23 July, authorities counted nearly 5,400 dead and over 16,700 injured, while citizens' platforms report tens of thousands still missing. Thousands of people are still living in temporary shelters, where health care, clean water, sanitation, and protection remain in short supply. For more on the immediate emergency triggered by the quakes, read this report from ground zero of the disaster.

Weekend Read

On Lesvos, the architecture of migration deterrence laid bare

Our editor returns to what was once the main gateway to the EU for refugees to see what has changed and what it says about efforts to stop migration.

And finally…

Is your AI chatbot kowtowing to a repressive regime?

New research from Meta’s Oversight Board found commercial large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, DeepSeek, Google, Meta, OpenAI, and xAI are far less likely to criticise repressive leaders and governments. The research calls it “free speech infringements by proxy”. Apps and material produced by these generative AI tools could actively reproduce restrictions, including on political criticism. It’s also unclear why these AI models are doing this – underscoring the need for companies to be transparent and to build in human rights due diligence into the process, before it’s too late. China, Thailand, Cambodia, and Saudi Arabia topped the list of countries with the highest refusal rates when LLMs were prompted to create materials criticising governments.