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As the violence prompted by the US-Israeli military assault on Iran drags on, killing more than 1,000 people – mostly Iranians – in a matter of days, it is clear that the humanitarian impact of the rapidly spreading war will be wide and devastating.
Much of the reporting has focused on military tactics, intelligence, and questions of regime change (or lack thereof) in Iran. But these talking points are overshadowing important questions about how the fighting will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of civilians in the Middle East, South Asia, and further afield.
It’s early days, and we don’t have all the answers, but here are five key humanitarian aspects of the conflict to keep an eye on.
1. Lebanon: Mass displacement and destruction, again
Israel’s bombing and troop advancement, combined with Hezbollah’s retaliatory rocket fire on Israel, have forced tens of thousands – likely many more – to flee their homes in south Lebanon and parts of Beirut. There aren’t accurate numbers of how many people have been displaced yet (the latest figures are 83,000 and rising), as the movement has been fast and slow at the same time, with traffic jams on major roads making the painful journey away from home even more arduous.
People are staying with family and friends, in cars, shelters, rented houses, and out in the streets. At least 11,000 people are reported to have crossed into Syria. For many, this is not the first time they have been bombarded or displaced by a war with Israel in the last few years. Nearly a million people were forcibly displaced inside Lebanon in the three months leading up to a late 2024 Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, which began with Israel’s now-infamous pager bombings and assasination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Tens of thousands of people were never able to go home despite the last truce, with homes destroyed, reconstruction barely started, and Israel still occupying towns along the border. Since the 2024 truce, there has been no full respite from the violence, with Israel continuing to bomb what it says are Hezbollah targets (although at least 127 civilians were documented as killed in the year following the ceasefire) inside Lebanon.
Many predicted that Hezbollah – already massively weakened by Israel’s attacks in 2024 – would be drawn into this war because of its ties to Iran. While it may have been foreseeable, it’s still a severe blow to people in a country with a decimated economy, rising food insecurity, and infrastructure that has not bounced back.
One complaint in 2024 was that aid groups were slow to mobilise when people needed help, although local people did their best then – and likely will have to do the same again – to fill the gaps and help out.
2. The Strait of Hormuz
Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, with a commander in the Revolutionary Guards threatening to set any ship “ablaze” that attempts to pass the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman out into the Arabian Sea.
It is said that a fifth of all of the world’s crude oil passes through the strait, and while there are alternative land and sea routes for oil and gas – they are longer and more expensive. Analysts predict that a prolonged closure will lead to a global rise in energy and food prices, but the most immediately vulnerable countries are in Asia, particularly Pakistan and Bangladesh, which rely heavily on the Gulf countries for liquefied natural gas and have limited storage facilities.
For Pakistan, which like Iran is facing massive economic setbacks and double-digit youth unemployment, the oil cutoffs will be yet another blow to an already struggling economy. Neighbouring Bangladesh is highly dependent on Qatar for gas imports, and Doha halted production from its state-owned gas company at the start of the week. Both countries – and others like India, Nepal, the Philippines, and Afghanistan – are also highly reliant on the billions of dollars of remittances their workers bring in from the Gulf and the Middle East every year. If the conflict drags on, it could have a major impact on this vital inflow of cash.
Japan is likely to be affected, too. Tokyo says it has just over 200 days of oil reserves, and an extended closure of the strait would have a major impact on the nation’s economy.
It’s not just about oil: Iran and the rest of the world are also reliant on the strait for food imports and production. At least 40% of the world’s supply of nitrogen fertiliser, which is essential to the global food supply, comes from Gulf countries, including the ones Iran is currently attacking. Iran itself uses the waterway to import grain: Of the 30 million tonnes of grain imported to the Gulf region, 14 million goes to Iran, and food prices were already rising before the war – one of the major contributing factors to the massive protests in Iran earlier this year.
Iranian attacks on Gulf ports will also hit the way aid groups handle logistics and deliver supplies, with the World Food Programme saying they are “racing to adapt” with airspace and shipping routes closed.
UN relief chief Tom Fletcher said on 3 March that “if energy routes or maritime corridors such as the Straits of Hormuz continue to be disrupted, food prices will soar, health systems will be squeezed, and basic supplies will tighten in countries that rely on imports.”
3. Civilian death, displacement, and infrastructure losses in Iran
We don’t have the full picture of what’s happening in Iran or what’s to come, with reports of the US potentially arming Iranian Kurdish fighters to mobilise against the government and the spectre of a potential civil war raising the potential of wider displacement and a different kind of crisis.
The lack of information is in part because US-Israeli strikes may have knocked out some internet access in the country, but experts say the Iranian government has likely deliberately imposed a blackout as its leader was assassinated and it struggles to hold on to power.
We do know that the bombing of a girls’ school, which Iranian officials said killed 160 people in southern Iran on the first day of US-Israeli strikes, is not the only time the US and Israel have killed civilians. One rights group has reported 742 civilian deaths.
These casualties – as well as pressure on food prices and potential growing needs if there is mass displacement or shortages – come against the backdrop of a country and a populace that was already struggling.
The protests that began in Iran’s markets and bazaars at the end of 2025 were driven by worsening economic conditions, price rises, and currency devaluation. By January, the cost of basic food staples had risen 19% for eggs and 50% percent for cooking oil, compared to the previous year.
These spikes were the result of both bad domestic economic policies from the Islamic Republic and the pressure of ongoing unilateral US sanctions. The latest bombings have forced families to stockpile food, especially because Israel continues to strike civilian areas in urban centres where shopping and trade is done.
Israel has already reportedly struck hospitals, including the Gandhi Hospital in northern Tehran, further degrading a healthcare system that was already struggling to tend to patients due to US sanctions, which have inhibited access to medicines, medical devices, and essential supplies. As US-Israeli bombings kill and wound more people, the pressure on these fragile hospitals is only likely to increase.
4. Afghan refugees
As is so often the case in humanitarian crises, those likely to suffer are people who were already marginalised. In Iran, a key group to watch is Afghan refugees, who number up to 2.6 million despite Tehran’s recent campaign of deportation, which sent 1.5 million Afghans home in the first half of 2025 alone.
As Israel bombed Tehran for 12 days last June, Afghan refugees – who have faced decades of xenophobia in Iran – faced a new accusation: Rumours spread that they had provided material support to Israel, a country no government in Kabul has ever recognised.
Even if the rhetoric towards Afghans in Iran doesn’t turn quite so hostile during this war, the constant bombardment of Iran’s urban centres – where most Afghans live – puts them in a particularly vulnerable position.
Even if the remaining refugees wanted to return home, doing so would put them at risk of coming under Pakistani fire. Last month, Pakistani air raids on alleged hideouts of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, the Pakistani Taliban, led to the deaths of 13 civilians in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province. In late February, Kabul’s Taliban-led government launched retaliatory attacks, and Islamabad responded with bombardments of Kabul, Jalalabad, and Kandahar, and a declaration of “open war” against Afghanistan.
The UN says the fighting has killed at least 42 civilians and wounded more than 100 others in Afghanistan. The turmoil in the Middle East could make any settlement between the two neighbours more difficult, because the usual mediators – Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Türkiye, and the UAE – are all preoccupied.
5. Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank
Just because all eyes are on Iran doesn’t mean that Israel has forgotten about Gaza or the West Bank.
On the same day that Israel and the US began bombing Iran, Israel shut both border crossings into Gaza – the only points aid can enter or a limited number of people can leave – citing “security adjustments”. Israel re-opened the Kerem Shalom crossing with Israel on 2 March – reportedly under pressure from the US – and some trucks began to cross the Rafah border with Egypt on 3 March.
Even before the closures, aid entry levels from Egypt had been “critically low” for weeks. The UN said this was because of high rejection rates by Israeli authorities, who control what is allowed in. The shuttering prompted concerns about an even greater hunger crisis, given that Palestinians in Gaza have been forced to rely mostly on food from outside the besieged territory.
“People fear a return to mass bombardment and extreme shortages,” Mai Elawawda, communications officer in central Gaza for Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP), said in a 3 March statement – before Rafah began to allow trucks in. “The psychological impact has been huge – everyone knows that closing the crossings will make our lives even more difficult. How can we face more devastation and loss?”
Meanwhile, Israel has escalated its movement restrictions on Palestinians in the West Bank, including occupied East Jerusalem. Late last month, Amnesty International said Israeli authorities have unleashed a series of unlawful measures since December 2025 “deliberately designed to dispossess Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and to make the annexation of the territory an irreversible reality”.
Extremist settler violence against Palestinians has surged since the start of the war in Gaza, and settlers shot and killed two Palestinian brothers on 2 March. If opportunist leaders see the war with Iran as a good time to profit while the eyes of the world – and the media – are focused elsewhere, this type of violence is only likely to get worse.
Edited by Andrew Gully.
