Strong economic growth predicted for Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania

Strong economic growth is expected in Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania in 1999, but the decline of the DRC is set to continue, according to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU). After achieving 7 percent GDP growth last year, Rwanda may not quite meet its targets of 7.5 percent in both 1999 and 2000. Nevertheless, the high growth should tempt more direct foreign investment. But, the EIU says, donors are not yet prepared to reduce Rwanda’s growing debt-service arrears, which currently total about US $100 million from a total debt stock of US $1.1 billion. In Uganda, GDP growth is expected to hit 6 percent this year - assuming favourable weather conditions - slightly up on 1998.

Tanzania’s GDP growth is forecast to rebound to 5 percent this year - again assuming good weather. But much will depend on how quickly the Tanzanian government can repair El Nino damage to roads and bridges, EIU’s latest country update says. In the DRC, the EIU believes the government’s prediction of 2.5 percent GDP growth in 1998 appears “extremely optimistic”. Continued instability will restict mineral production and investment funds are expected to be scarce. According to a World Bank study, it will take 46 consecutive years of 6 percent annual real GDP growth for annual per capita income to rise to US $450 in the DRC. Kenya’s GDP growth for 1999 will be an equally lackluster 1.6 percent rising to 2 percent in the year 2000, EIU forecasts.