Recent political tensions could ignite conflict in KZN

KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) has historically been one of South Africa's more volatile provinces. With political tensions on the rise again, some analysts fear there may be potential for renewed conflict. Two issues have been responsible for raising tensions in the province: a proposed Communal Land Act, and floor-crossing legislation. The land bill seeks to provide security of tenure for people occupying communal land. Traditional leaders say that would undermine their authority as they have traditionally parcelled out land according to their own whims. The governments floor-crossing legislation allows for defectors to move from one party to another without losing their council or parliamentary seat. While the Constitutional Court ruled that the floor-crossing laws were applicable to local government, the defection legislation for provincial and national government were found to be sound in principle but technically flawed. These have already been re-tabled and parliament will consider them again early next year. But the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) - the ruling party in KZN, which sees itself as a defender of Zulu tradition and the monarchy - has already hit back at the government by firing MPs who defected before the Constitutional Court rejected the floor-crossing laws for provincial and national parliament. Provincial Premier Lionel Mtshali this week also fired two ruling African National Congress (ANC) MPs who had served in his cabinet and handed their portfolios over to smaller opposition party MPs. Meanwhile, IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi - an uncle of Zulu King Goodwill Zwelethini and a prince himself - has given notice that the IFP is against the draft Communal Land Rights Bill and the White Paper on Traditional Leadership. He was backed by belligerent comments from Zwelethini, who was quoted as saying that neither himself nor the amakhosi [chiefs] feared death and would fight for their rights. President Thabo Mbeki hit back in his annual speech to the National Council of Provinces, calling for the matter to be decided through "an inclusive dialogue and not through one party threatening all others with violence". Said Mbeki: "Apart from the fact that the law enforcement authorities will act vigorously to protect lives and property against anybody who decides to use force to advance his or her goals, it is time that all of us outgrow the period in our history when resorting to violence to attain political objectives resulted in the loss of thousands of innocent lives [a reference to the violent conflict between the IFP and ANC in KZN during the 1980's and 1990's]." These comments have the potential to raise the political stakes in KZN, warned Mary de Haas of the KZN Violence Monitor. The Monitor is a University of Natal-based violence monitoring project, which has its roots in social science research on political violence carried out from the mid 1980s. It claims no allegiance to any political party or governmental organisation. Police in KZN told IRIN there had been no incidents of political violence reported in recent months. An assertion De Haas disputes. The Monitor's report covering May to September 2002 said there had been attacks on ANC supporters in Mpembeni (in the north coast) "in which a number of people (at least 10, according to local sources) have died". "It is alleged that a neighbouring traditional leader wants ANC supporters out of the area. ANC supporters have also been murdered in nearby Esikaleni near Port Durnford," the Monitor reported. "There are a lot of inexplicable incidents that the police dismiss as witchcraft or faction fighting ... the chiefs rule the rural areas with an iron fist, there's no freedom of political activity," said De Haas. A project called Copwatch was being set up to monitor the performance of police "in some of these cases", she added. Nhlanhla Ntaka, of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (IDASA), was less convinced that KZN could be heading for further political violence. "I believe, as much as it's true that there are these challenges, it's very important to understand that the peace which prevails in KZN now is not because the ANC and IFP woke up and wanted peace, but because people forced them to do so ... there's a critical mass [of people] who will ensure they don't take the province back to the violent situation of the 1990's. Also, neither of the parties would like to be perceived as the ones with the keys to violence in the province," he told IRIN. Indeed, IFP leader Buthelezi has gone to court to contest the final Truth and Reconciliation Commission report which sort to portray him as a chief perpetrator of apartheid era violence. "He does not want to be judged by history as the one who started violence," said Ntaka. Although there was always a danger that "both sides could organise radicals", this was unlikely given the recent stability in the province and should politically motivated violence increase, it was unlikely to reach the levels of the late 1990's, Ntaka added. But according to De Haas' reports from the field, "the violence is still continuing but it's a lot more covert now [as opposed to the open hostilities of previous years]".