It’s not just Gaza and Ukraine. Wars and other humanitarian emergencies continue to rage around the globe heading into 2025. Many of them – even Sudan, the world’s largest displacement crisis – garner relatively little media coverage and struggle to get their share of donor aid money. And even when the funds are there for a robust response, securing the access to actually deliver one can be all but impossible.
At the start of each year, our team of specialist editors produces a list of 10 crises to watch. With so many to choose from, and bearing in mind the particularly worrisome humanitarian funding backdrop, the 2025 list has been extended to 13. Several more settings – Lebanon or South Sudan, for example – could easily have been added.
Sudan: Famine and fighting spread as warring parties weaponise hunger
Numbers: More than 12 million people have been displaced since conflict erupted in April 2023. Some 25 million people – over half the population – are facing acute hunger, and famine has been declared in at least five areas for which experts say they have reliable data.
All signs are trending downwards as the war in Sudan nears the two-year mark. What started as a dispute over plans to merge the paramilitary-turned-rebel Rapid Support Forces into the regular army has turned into a nationwide conflict drawing in an ever-expanding number of militia and rebel groups. The conflict has produced the world’s largest displacement crisis, with over 12 million people uprooted, including nearly 3.5 million to neighbouring states, and the biggest hunger crisis too, a product of the warring parties’ weaponisation of starvation. Half of the country (around 25 million people) are facing acute food insecurity, and famine has been detected in at least five areas (and is projected in five more areas by May), according to the Famine Review Committee, part of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, the frequently hamstrung system for measuring food crises. The RSF has been charged with committing genocide by local communities (especially in Darfur), human rights groups, and foreign governments, and the army is also widely accused of carrying out war crimes. Initiatives to end the war have been disjointed and arms keep flowing into the country as the belligerents and their external backers seem committed to prolonging (and profiting from) Sudan’s catastrophic collapse.
The Horn of Africa: Regional power politics stirs instability
Numbers: Some 64 million people were in need of aid across the Horn of Africa last year – one fifth of the global humanitarian caseload. Nearly 20 million people are internally displaced in just three countries – Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
The violence of Sudan’s civil war wouldn’t be so calamitous if it wasn’t for the meddling of regional powers jostling for dominance. The United Arab Emirates -- looking to expand its footprint in Africa -- provides weapons to the RSF, smuggled through a pliant Chad, Central African Republic, and Libya. The Sudanese armed forces, the RSF’s rival, are backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. With the fracturing of the liberal world order, these so-called “middle powers” have a determinative influence over the warring sides. Any hope of progress on peace talks – a distant prospect for the moment -- must take account of their interests. But Sudan is only one aspect of the broader instability across the Horn of Africa in which local, regional, and global conflict dynamics are enmeshed. Ethiopia and Somalia are another. Landlocked Ethiopia’s demand for a port and naval base in Somaliland (a breakaway region of Somalia) has caused deep ructions. Somalia saw the deal as a violation of its sovereignty and responded with a defence agreement with Egypt – Addis Ababa’s longstanding competitor. A Turkish mediation appears to have de-escalated tensions in recent weeks, though there is much still to be concerned about. Unaddressed is the status of self-governing Somaliland, strategically positioned on the Gulf of Aden. US President-elect Donald Trump looks set to recognise the territory – overriding African Union objections – as a hedge against China’s influence in Djibouti. The regional power politics does nothing for the tens of millions of people affected by conflict and climate disaster.
Palestine: The toll of Israel’s wars and unending occupation
Numbers: Since October 2023, the Israeli military has killed almost 46,000 Palestinians in its assault on the Gaza Strip. The indirect death toll from starvation, disease, and lack of healthcare is likely significantly higher. Nearly the entire population of 2.1 million people is displaced, and 92% of homes in the enclave have been destroyed or damaged.
In early November, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant – who is wanted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court (ICC) – reportedly said there is nothing left for Israel to achieve militarily in Gaza. US military officials reached that same conclusion as far back as last August. Yet the siege and assault on the enclave have continued. Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu (also wanted by the ICC) is widely seen as having blocked ceasefire agreements any time one has been close. If a deal is finally reached, Gaza has been brutalised beyond recognition and its people forced to endure staggering levels of violence and deprivation. Both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have concluded that Israel is committing acts of genocide. If Israel’s leadership decides to end the war, it will undoubtedly impose ceasefire conditions that will make recovery exceedingly slow and limited. Israel’s government has also made it abundantly clear that it is opposed to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. Instead, Israel is building military infrastructure in Gaza that suggests it intends to stay, while dramatically expanding land theft and settlement building in the West Bank, where repression and military and settler violence have intensified. All of this – as well as Israel’s pulverisation of southern Lebanon and its occupation of more territory in Syria – has taken place with utter impunity and the backing of the US, Germany, UK, and other major Western powers. Palestinians have been the main victims, but the Western-led post-World War II system of international institutions and law intended to manage conflicts and prevent atrocities has also taken a big hit with far-reaching implications.
Syria: Assad’s fall leaves more questions than answers
Numbers: After nearly 14 years of war, 7.2 million Syrians are internally displaced, and there are more than 5 million refugees in the region. Some 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and the cost of reconstruction in the country has been put at $400 billion.
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December was the global event no one seemed to see coming, even though the rebels – led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – clearly timed their offensive from Idlib down to Damascus carefully, with al-Assad’s allies Hezbollah and Russia weakened from other wars, and Iran in no place to help either. After nearly 14 years of war and more than 50 years of rule by al-Assad’s family, many Syrians have been celebrating, as well as asking what’s next. It’s a good question. Even before al-Assad’s ouster, humanitarian needs were at their highest point ever since protests began in 2011; the UN says some 16.7 million out of 23.5 million Syrians needed aid in 2024, amid a long-running economic crisis. The way aid is coordinated and delivered across the country is undergoing a massive rethink, complicated by the fact that HTS has long been designated a terrorist group by the US, the UK, the UN, and others. That could be a major problem for donors, especially when it comes to tricky terms like “reconstruction”. Meanwhile, displaced people and refugees have already begun to return home, but without homes, jobs, or guarantees of safety. Whether more will follow is yet another in a long list of known unknowns.
Myanmar: Civilians trapped in crossfire of intensifying civil war
Numbers: The number of displaced people now exceeds 3.5 million, up from 1.5 million at the start of 2023. The UN’s 2024 humanitarian response plan was only 36% funded. Around 20 million of Myanmar’s 55 million population are estimated to need assistance in 2025, with at least 15 million people facing acute food insecurity. The UN is targeting around 5.5 million people with lifesaving aid.
As military rule heads into its third year, the junta is increasingly being challenged by a collection of armed ethnic groups that are rapidly retaking swathes of territory. In late November, the Kachin Independence Army drove junta forces from the last town near the Chinese border where they still had a foothold. This came only days after Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing called again for peace talks with the diffuse patchwork of armed ethnic groups. Civilians are being displaced and killed in higher numbers as communities become trapped in the crossfire, no more so than in Rakhine State, where the UN warned in November of imminent famine and the starvation of up to two million people. Healthcare provision across the country has also been decimated and looks set to worsen amid a widespread cholera outbreak. Both the military rulers and the armed groups face widespread accusations of war crimes and civilian abuses – the former particularly for its indiscriminate airstrikes. The largest and most well-known armed ethnic group, the Arakan Army, has been accused of targeting the Rohingya. They are not alone. The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him too of crimes against the long-persecuted Muslim minority. Meanwhile, about a million Rohingya refugees, most of whom fled the military’s genocidal 2017 crackdown, are still living in squalid, dangerous camps in Bangladesh with little hope of return or justice.
Haiti: Women and children pay heavy price as chaos reigns
Numbers: Some 5.5 million people – half the population – need humanitarian assistance and 5.4 million struggle to feed themselves. Only 45.7% of the UN’s response plan for 2024 was funded. More than 700,000 people have been displaced, half of them children. At least 5,601 people were killed, and more than 2,000 were injured, by gangs in 2024.
Haiti’s multi-faceted crisis spiralled in 2024, as gangs expanded their control over large parts of the country, the political class squabbled, and an attempt by the international community to restore order through a UN-backed but woefully under-resourced police support mission proved next to useless. In the capital, Port-au-Prince, gang attacks forced aid groups to evacuate their staff, leaving thousands of desperate people shut off from outside assistance. In the past few months, a series of massacres has forced thousands more to flee and join those settling mostly in overcrowded improvised sites. More than half of those displaced are children who have lost access to schooling and are especially exposed to gang recruitment. Women have also been suffering countless abuses, with rape increasingly used by the gangs as a means of asserting power. According to the UN, sexual violence against minors, particularly girls, spiked by 1,000% in 2024 compared to 2023. Food insecurity has also reached unprecedented levels, with half the population suffering from acute hunger – two million of them at emergency levels. Neither the embattled transitional government nor foreign leaders seem able to offer a route out of this deepening humanitarian catastrophe.
The Sahel: Military juntas face new and old insurgencies
Numbers: There are 2.6 million internally displaced people in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and around 330,000 refugees. Some 15 million people are in need of humanitarian support across the three countries, according to the UN.
The juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger will likely face worsening insurgencies this year as their militaristic zeal emboldens the jihadist groups they are trying to defeat. The juntas inherited a weak hand from civilian predecessors, but their military campaigns are accelerating rates of violence, and their attacks on civilians are playing into the hands of jihadist outfits (linked to global groups but drawing on deeply local grievances), which have attacked capital cities and spread into neighboring coastal countries. The juntas also face growing threats from non-jihadist groups. The mainly Tuareg armed movements in northern Mali have consolidated into a new coalition and renewed their demands for independence, while political and military formations opposed to the junta in Niger have also joined forces, even as some fighters surrender. Different armed groups (both state and non-state) are increasingly using drones in their operations (both for targeted strikes and reconnaissance) shifting the dynamics of conflicts previously characterised by old-school guerrilla combat.
Afghanistan: Women’s rights versus Taliban recognition
Numbers: In 2025, 22.9 million Afghans, nearly half the population, will be in need of assistance. While this is down 800,000 from 2024, last year’s UN response plan was less than 50% met and international assistance continues to dry up. As Pakistan and Iran ramp up deportation efforts, the country is struggling to meet the demands of 3.7 million internally displaced people. Earthquake and flooding disasters also devastated the lives of tens of thousands of families across Afghanistan in 2024.
As was also the case the preceding year, 2024 ended with new education restrictions for Afghan women. In early December, the Taliban-led government announced that medical institutions could no longer teach female students. Though universities had been forced to shut their doors to women since December 2022, medical schools and institutes had been able to continue to admit and train women. The 2024 education order was quickly followed by further restrictions on women working for local and international NGOs. For more than a year, aid organisations had found workarounds or forged hush-hush agreements with officials to find ways for their female workers to continue working, but at the end of 2023 the Ministry of Economy issued a stern warning that any organisation still employing Afghan women in the country faced imminent closure. These bans were preceded by a set of laws that dictate how men and women can dress in public, what content people can store on their smartphones, and whether Afghans can befriend non-Muslims. All of these moves received widespread domestic and international condemnation, but they seemed to have had only a limited effect so far on the world’s engagement with the Islamic Emirate. Russia, one of the Taliban-led government’s most steadfast allies, is even moving towards removing the group from its list of international terrorist organisations, which analysts say could be a major step towards Moscow becoming the first nation to officially recognise the Islamic Emirate.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo: Peace talks falter as M23 rebels seize new territory
Numbers: Some 25.5 million people (roughly one in four in the country) will face high levels of food insecurity between January and June 2025. An estimated 7 million people have been internally displaced, mainly in eastern parts of the country.
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between the Congolese army and the Rwanda-supported M23 rebel group are faltering, and that spells disaster for the over 1.5 million people sheltering in camps and host families, many now for several years. An Angolan mediation between DRC and Rwanda had shown signs of progress in recent months, but negotiations stalled over the Rwandan army’s plans to disengage from Congolese territory, and over the status of direct talks between DRC and the M23. The armed group has, meanwhile, been replacing local authorities, seizing control of new territory, including key mining areas, and has installed an intensive taxation system, all suggesting it has long-term plans. The Congolese army’s response to the insurgency – outsourcing operations to local militias – is also imperilling civilians and threatening future crises. The conflict is occurring as UN peacekeepers draw down (something many Congolese support) and as other armed groups target civilians in eastern parts of the country, a key frontier of global capitalist extraction and its ruinous consequences.
Yemen and the Red Sea: Commerce as the new front line
Numbers: After nearly 10 years of war, 4.5 million people in Yemen are internally displaced. Some 17.1 million of Yemen’s nearly 39 million people are predicted to be food insecure in 2025, in part because of a massive economic collapse that has thrown 83% of the population into multidimensional poverty.
Despite nearly 10 years of war and a massive humanitarian catastrophe, much of the world – with some notable exceptions like Saudi Arabia and Iran – has seemed to pay little attention to Yemen and the plight of Yemenis. That is, until Houthi rebels (officially known as Ansar Allah), who control the north of the country, began attacking ships in the Red Sea in late 2023. They escalated their drone and missile strikes throughout 2024, part of a campaign they say is a gesture of support for Palestinians in Gaza and is aimed at the US, the UK, and Israel (although they have hit ships from all over the world). With concerns rising about what this would mean for the shipping industry and consumer prices, the US and the UK, backed by several other countries, have been striking Houthi targets in retaliation. Their involvement in Yemen’s war is nothing new, but their overt justification – to “protect the free flow of commerce” – is. The popularity of the Houthis outside Yemen has soared on the back of anger at Israel’s actions in Gaza, especially as they have been escalating missile and drone attacks at Israel itself. While most of the projectiles are intercepted, Israel is clearly concerned – the end of 2024 saw it bomb ports near Sana’a and its airport (not for the first time), renewing concerns about aid access and crucial food and fuel imports. Inside Yemen, peace talks are stalled and food insecurity remains worryingly high and widespread, as economic collapse affects people across the country but is also a source of division between the warring sides.
Ukraine: Heading into uncertainty
Numbers: Despite the United States, the UK, and the EU providing Ukraine with over $82 billion ($61.3 billion from the US) in military assistance since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Russian military continues to occupy around 18% of Ukraine’s territory. Meanwhile, 12.7 million people in the country, out of a population of 35.6 million, are in need of humanitarian assistance.
The Russian military made slow but consistent gains on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine in 2024, and even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has conceded that his army doesn’t have the fighting power to reclaim all of the country’s territory. The re-election of Trump to the US presidency has thrown a new, volatile element into the war, which will soon enter its fourth year. Trump, who takes office on 20 January, has been outspoken about his sympathies for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his scepticism about US military aid to Ukraine. He reportedly plans to force Ukraine and Russia into peace talks to end the war, and Ukraine may very well find itself negotiating from a place of weakness without the staunch support it received from outgoing US President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s allies have relaxed red lines about using Western-supplied weapons to attack targets in Russian territory. Russia has responded by striking Ukrainian cities with a new type of missile and issuing nuclear threats. In a world where international norms are rapidly fraying, the potential for unpredictable next steps and escalation is rife. Ripple effects from the struggle for influence in eastern Europe between Russia and the US and its European allies are also likely to spread. Already, in the past year Georgia, Bulgaria, and Moldova have all seen contentious elections and political instability connected to Russian interference and societal divides related to the geopolitical contest for influence.
Vanuatu: The climate justice battle reaches the courts
Numbers: Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – 39 countries home to 65 million people – are especially vulnerable to climate disasters like extreme storms, rising sea levels, and land degradation. Their average GDP is $13.7 billion, but extreme weather cost them an estimated total of $153 billion between 1970 and 2020. At least 40% of SIDS struggle with debt.
The tiny Pacific island nation of Vanuatu saw out 2024 by leading a major climate legal case at the UN’s International Court of Justice – the largest case ever heard at the body, with over 100 participants. Vanuatu asked the ICJ to clarify what legal obligations states have – under existing international legislation – to fight climate change and protect people from its effects. A so-called advisory opinion is expected from the ICJ early in 2025. The case was a first of its kind and “led by the Global South”, Arnold Kiel Loughman, Vanuatu’s attorney general, said at the end of the hearings. In going to the ICJ, climate-vulnerable countries vented long held frustrations with the sluggish UN climate (COP) process, but officials hope a favourable opinion from the court – asserting that some countries should help others suffering as a result of global warming – could help bolster their cause in other forums, particularly to help get more badly needed climate finance. But even if it is successful, how effective the case will be is unclear, especially in an era of diminishing respect for international law and strained multilateralism.
Migration in the Americas: Bracing for the Trump effect
Numbers: More than 300,000 people crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in 2024 – a significant number but well short of the record 520,000 that crossed in 2023. The US Border Patrol carried out just over one million apprehensions of people irregularly crossing the US southern border in the past year – also a significant decrease from 2023.
Despite the recent decrease in numbers, migration – and the political fixation on it – throughout the Americas shows no sign of abating in 2025. Trump has promised to carry out a mass deportation campaign targeting the estimated 11 million undocumented people living in the US. Many of the countries in Latin America that people would be deported to – including Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala – are ill-equipped to receive tens or hundreds of thousands of deportees. In addition to straining housing and social services, their economies would sorely miss the remittances that migrants in the US send home. During his first 2016-2020 term, Trump also put in place a slew of policies that limited access to political asylum at the US-Mexico border. Despite initially promising to take a different tack, Biden ended up embracing a hardline approach that was not all that different from Trump’s in its substance. The second Trump administration is likely to double-down while scrapping the few, largely inadequate programmes the Biden administration put in place to create legal options for people in need of humanitarian protection to reach the US. But don’t expect migration to go away as an issue. History has shown that attempts to deter migration by putting in place harsh policies are ineffective at keeping numbers down in the medium and longer term. Ultimately, the factors pushing people to leave their homes – rising gang violence, political instability, grinding economic stagnation, and natural disasters – outweigh the barriers placed in people’s way. The question is, how much more dangerous will their journeys become to get to places that offer safety and opportunity? Hundreds already perished last year trying to cross the Darién or the US-Mexico border, while thousands more remain stranded in southern Mexico.
(Banner image credit: Anthony Acosta/Pexels, Gustavo Graf/Reuters, Mohammed Salem/Reuters, Marckinson Pierre/Reuters, Coordination of Resistance Committees, El Fasher/Facebook, Mahmoud Abo Rass/TNH, Bilal Guler/Anadolu)
