Conflicts between communities and the large-scale movement of people could affect food supplies in 2007 despite recent harvests, a food early warning agency has warned.
According to the Food Early Warning System (FEWS Net), food security has improved in the northern parts of southern Sudan, but insecurity and population resettlement threaten the recent gains in Aweil East, West, North and South counties; in Northern Bahr El Gazal state; parts of Warrap state; and Wuror, Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties in Jonglei state.
In its 28 December update, the agency cautioned that structural food deficits will begin to affect poor and recently resettled households (returning IDPs) from April 2007.
"An increase in population returns will overload the already limited capacities that exist to accommodate returnees, and competition for scarce labour opportunities and off-farm food sources such as fish and wild foods will increase," it noted.
The most densely populated regions will be worst hit; in Northern Bahr El Gazal and Warrap states. There, an estimated 545,000 people will probably not to have enough to eat in 2007, particularly in Gogrial and Twic counties.
According to the update, food security improvements are unlikely to last beyond February in Gogrial due to reduced cultivation caused by inter-ethnic conflict which limited access to land during the June-September season.
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that about 72,000 tonnes of food aid will be needed to address food deficits, with an additional 36,000 tonnes required as a contingency reserve for an expected 500,000 returnees.
The disarmament process by the south Sudanese government in 2006 in Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties also left households more vulnerable to cattle raiding by their armed neighbours in Pibor county.
Tensions are also reported in Malakal, in Shilluk county, where fighting between two security forces erupted towards the end of November; and in Juba county, where civil insecurity caused by armed groups continues to limit the movement of people and trade.
There are also 250,000 Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda, and if a significant proportion return to Central Equatoria [Juba, Magwi, Torit and Kajokeji - where up to 150,000 people are already expected to be food insecure in 2007], then food aid will be needed for them.
Large-scale population returns, which are being encouraged due to the population census scheduled to take place in November 2007, could also have a negative affect on food security in destination areas. The census is the first since 1993.
"Up to four million southern Sudanese are estimated to still be in northern Sudan, and an estimated 500,000 of them could return south," said FEWS Net, adding that about 350,000 people returned to southern Sudan in 2006.
However, the security situation had improved in the Greenbelt, Hills and Mountain zones, following the resumption of the Ugandan peace talks in mid-December. The rebel Lord's Resistance Army had been active in the area since the early 1990s.
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