Think-tank links lack of progress in peace process to Darfur conflict

The "negative trends" in the peace talks between the government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the deteriorating conflict in Sudan's western Darfur region are linked, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank. "The fate of the IGAD [Inter-Governmental Authority on Development] peace process remains linked to Darfur developments," said the ICG in a report issued on Thursday. "The international community has responded to the Darfur crisis largely with quiet diplomacy, fearing too much pressure on Khartoum would endanger the IGAD peace talks. It is clearer by the day, however, that the conflict there must be resolved if there is to be overall peace in Sudan." Since January 2004 - with a three-week break for a Muslim pilgrimage - the two sides have been negotiating the future status of three disputed areas - the Nuba mountains, southern Blue Nile and oil-rich Abyei - resulting in a deadlock over the latter. ICG said Khartoum had "slowed" the IGAD negotiations earlier this year to give itself time for a major offensive in Darfur. "The government used the three-week break [for the Hajj pilgrimage] until talks resumed on 17 February to launch a massive military offensive in Darfur it hoped would remove any reason to negotiate further with the SLA/JEM [Sudan Liberation Army/Justice and Equality Movement] rebels [in Darfur]," it said. IRIN was unable to obtain a comment from the Sudanese government on the ICG report. But earlier this week, the Sudanese embassy in Nairobi issued a statement saying it was committed to a peaceful solution in Darfur "through political dialogue". Simultaneously, the international community had remained divided on how to react to the escalating conflict, said ICG. While the diplomatic community in Khartoum explored vehicles for international action, such as a statement by a senior UN humanitarian official before the UN Security Council, the UK, US and other members had advocated a lower profile. The government "took advantage of this disagreement to pursue its military campaign" while blaming the collapse of ceasefire talks with the SLA in mid-December on the latter, said ICG. In reality, "it [the government] walked away without meeting them [the rebels]", after less than one day, the ICG noted. "The talks never began, and the parties never met," while the Chadian mediators announced that the rebels had made "unreasonable demands". In February, the government claimed victory in Darfur, declaring an amnesty for rebels who surrendered their arms within one month. Both rebel groups rejected the call and launched offensives. According to ICG, the international community urgently needs to bring more focused pressure to bear on both the government and SPLM/A delegations in Naivasha, the venue of the peace talks in Kenya, to reach a final settlement, while observer countries - the US, UK, Italy and Norway - need to condemn violations of international humanitarian law in Darfur more vocally. "It has taken more than a year of war for the international community to begin to realise that the Darfur crisis requires its full engagement," it said. Domenico Polloni, the deputy head of mission at the Italian embassy in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, acknowledged that while the international community had continually pushed for humanitarian access in Darfur, the political process "had come late". This was due to the lack of access to the region, which had resulted in a lack of information about what was going on there, he told IRIN. But "high-level increasing pressure" was being exerted on all sides to resolve the Darfur conflict, he said, adding that peace talks with the Darfur rebels due to open in Chad in the coming days would not take place without that pressure. "We are not here to tell the Sudanese about war and peace in their country," he added. "We are trying to bring about an environment that is conducive to decision-making by them." Observers are hoping for a breakthrough in either the IGAD peace process or in peace talks on Darfur, which would mutually complement one other. The transition period following a future settlement between the government and the SPLM/A - in which a constitutional review is foreseen - "would be a good opportunity to address the political aspects of the Darfur crisis, but within a broader framework of addressing the issue of marginalisation of various areas", an EU official commented. On 19 March, US Senator John Danforth put forward a proposal in Naivasha calling for a referendum that offers Abyei the choice of joining southern Sudan or remaining in the north, and detailing the sharing of oil revenue, which observers are hoping will resolve the lack of progress at the talks in Naivasha.