Expedite preparations for return of IDPs and refugees, says advocacy group

The government, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and relief agencies need to expedite preparations for the return of 1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and thousands of refugees to their homes in southern Sudan once a peace agreement is signed, the advocacy group, Refugees International (RI) said. "If progress towards peace in Sudan continues, the large-scale returns of displaced persons and refugees to their former homes will be one of the largest, most hazardous and difficult operations that governments, the UN and aid agencies have ever attempted," the agency said. Some 570,000 Sudanese refugees outside the country, and between 3 million and 4 million IDPs are expected to return home once a peace deal has been signed between the government and the SPLM/A. Over 1 million IDPs and thousands of refugees are expected in the first six months, which could lead to southern Sudan being "overwhelmed", said RI. "Planning to receive potential returnees has begun, but the preparations are far from complete," it added, warning that current planning might be too late if large-scale returns were to begin soon. Donors must immediately begin to fund programmes to assist returnees, rather than wait for a final peace deal, it stressed. With no reliable population statistics available for Sudan as a whole, and no accurate statistics on the numbers of IDPs, much of the current planning is based on assumptions. Apart from the logistical challenges lying ahead, observers are also concerned about the political nature of the returns, with both the government and the SPLM/A having good reason to accelerate the process. Not having up to 2 million southerners living in slum areas around the capital might be a welcome peace dividend for Khartoum. Similarly, the SPLM/A is keen to have the returnees home before elections are held, a census conducted and, most importantly, before a referendum on self-determination for the south follows a six-year interim period. The numbers of returnees will also determine southerners' access to various sources of funding and services. SPLM/A officials are confident that the 2 million semi-urbanised southerners in Khartoum - many of whom are economic migrants and not IDPs - will wish to return home, but observers note that they may not wish to return to a southern Sudan with few schools, jobs or health facilities. USAID's Famine Early Warning System warned this month that current food insecurity in "high alert" areas such as Aweil, Wau, Magwit, Torit, Bor, Juba and Yei would also be a problem for both returnees and host populations. Last year's grain stocks are due to run out for many poor households in Bahr al-Ghazal and parts of Upper Nile in March, well ahead of the planting season in June and July. The UN is currently planning to provide transport and assistance for the refugees, and food, health, water, mine-awareness and shelter for returning IDPs, who will either walk or take barges along 14 major routes in Sudan. Programmes will also be launched to construct wells, schools, health and other facilities to help communities absorb the returnees. Most of the IDPs are expected to move from north to south with about 35 percent of the first million going to Equatoria, 20 percent to Bahr al-Ghazal, 20 percent to Upper Nile and 15 percent to Southern Kordofan.