Warning of huge food needs by 2007

Over 17 million people in Ethiopia may need emergency food aid by 2007, according to a food security watchdog. The warning comes from the US government's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) which said 17.3 million people could need help because of declining rainfall levels and a spiralling population which are fuelling chronic food shortages. The organisation also calls on the Ethiopian government to “refocus” its national development goals and try to slash dependence on rain fed agriculture. The majority of the population are subsistence farmers, totally dependent on rain. Ethiopia is still reeling from an “unprecedented” complex humanitarian crisis that left 13.2 million – one in five of the population - facing starvation during the year. Aid agencies blame entrenched poverty rather than a lack of rainfall as the root cause of the recurrent emergencies that afflict the beleaguered nation. And FEWS warns that the situation is likely to get worse in the coming years. FEWS predicts that next year the country will face a food shortfall of 2.3 million mt – compared to the 3.4 million mt shortfall that hit Ethiopia this year. “Food balance projections suggest that 12.8 million Ethiopians will meet none of their food needs in the 2004-05 production year, increasing to 14.3 million in 2005-06, 15.8 million in 2006-07 and 17.3 million in 2007-08,” the report said. “A long-term negative rainfall trend in the southwestern highlands may be aggravating the situation," it added. “Increasing food requirements and decreasing precipitation point toward chronic food shortages in the near future." “To counteract these ominous trends of growing deficits and declining rainfall, Ethiopia requires urgent changes in its rural development priorities - security of land holdings, improvements in crop yields and production technologies, restoration of the environment, more efficient markets, protection of livelihoods and entitlements, and reductions in population growth,” FEWS said.