Urgent aid needed to avert catastrophe

Land reform activities and a severe drought have been identified as major causes of a collapse of agricultural production in Zimbabwe, where six million people face hunger.

A report on the joint crop and food supply assessment mission by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP), released on Wednesday, said Zimbabwe was facing a serious food crisis.

"Even at harvest time, and unless international food assistance is provided urgently, there will be a serious famine and loss of life in the coming months," the FAO/WFP report warned.

On 26 April President Robert Mugabe declared a state of disaster as a result of the drought.

Cereal crop production for the current marketing year (April 2002 to March 2003) was estimated at about 670,000 mt, "or 57 percent down from last year's poor harvest and 69 percent down from production in 1999/00".

The two organisations said: "The production of maize, the main staple, is estimated at 480,000 mt, down by 67 percent on last year and by 77 percent on 1999/00. The major cause of collapse of the 2002 main season ... has been a severe prolonged drought between January and March, which wiped out crops in most parts of the country. Land reform activities contributed to the steep fall in production."

President Mugabe's fast track land reform programme has been marred by illegal invasions of farms and illegal evictions by self-styled war veterans. The government has passed legislation allowing it to seize land for redistribution without having to pay compensation, should former colonial power Britain not provide funds for land redistribution.

Cereal import requirements for the 2002/03 season were estimated at "a staggering 1.8 million mt, of which maize accounts for 1.7 million mt or 91 percent".

The total uncovered cereal deficit for the year, taking into account commercial cereal imports of 312,000 mt and 60,000 mt in food aid pledges, was 1.4 million mt with the maize deficit amounting to 1.3 million mt.

"Approximately 6 million people are estimated to have insufficient production, income and other entitlements to be able to meet their minimum food requirements throughout the coming year. Emergency food assistance in the amount of 705,000 mt of cereals, in addition to other supplementary food items, is needed to support their minimum cereal consumption requirements," the FAO/WFP report said.

The situation has been worsened by Zimbabwe's continued economic decline. The economy contracted by 4.2 percent in 2000 and by a further 8.6 percent the following year.

This has led to "high and increasing unemployment combined with a high and increasing cost of living over the past few years". This has meant that "millions of people who have the resources to purchase their cereal staple food are increasingly unable to do so because grain is not widely available in markets, or is selling at very high prices".

The report said: "Even before this year's severe crop failure, 75 percent of the population were classified as poor, and 42 percent as very poor. The situation ... is certainly much worse following the collapse of food production."

Agriculture was one of the most important sectors of Zimbabwe's economy, providing over half of the country's total employment and contributing about 15 percent of gross domestic product. It was responsible for about 40 percent of the country's foreign exchange earnings while providing the bulk of raw materials to the manufacturing sector.

The report said: "Current levels of food insecurity in Zimbabwe are the result of a continuing and substantial deterioration in the macro-economy of the country over the 1990s, recent climatic factors, a broad disruption in the patterns of national food production due to 'fast track' land reform activities, and more recent events of civil disturbances."

The worst affected by the food shortage were vulnerable rural populations in chronically food-deficit areas in the south, west and extreme north of the country, the urban poor and commercial farm workers.

Extraordinary measures would be required by the government of Zimbabwe and the international community to avert a catastrophe.

"At present it appears that the government of Zimbabwe, through the Grain Marketing Board (GMB), will not be able to import a sufficient quantity of cereals ... due to its severely limited foreign exchange reserves. The mission recommends a combination of private sector commercial imports (852,000 mt) and humanitarian assistance (705,000 mt, of which 60,000 mt are already pledged) to meet this food gap," the report said.

Among the recommendations of the assessment mission was that "private sector commercial imports would require the removal of the GMB monopoly on the import of maize, maize meal and wheat; the removal of government price controls to allow these products to be sold at prices reflecting the import cost; and the removal of all restrictions on the movement of grain inside the country".

WFP is currently conducting an emergency operation (EMOP) covering 558,000 beneficiaries in communal areas in 19 districts which were affected by drought and floods in 2001 in the southern, western and extreme north of the country.

As of mid-May about US $29.6 million (50 percent of the total value of the EMOP) equivalent to 59,370 mt of food commodities had been pledged by donors. However, distribution was held up because the food was slow to arrive.

"As of 21 May, WFP ... had distributed some 9,000 mt of food in 15 districts to over 453,000 beneficiaries. It is expected that the distribution rate will increase in the near future," the report said.

For the full report go to:
http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/alertes/sptochtm or www.wfp.org