New report urges "renewed engagement"

The instability and power vacuum created by the collapse of the Somali state poses the greatest danger to the outside world and to Somalia itself, according to a new report by the Brussels-based think tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG).

In a press release to launch the report, the ICG said Somalia was one of the world's chief examples of a failed state. "Its highly fragmented internal security situation and the competing agendas of its neighbours have raised concerns that it may again become a base for international terrorism," the organisation said.

"Somalia has largely been forgotten since the last UN peacekeepers pulled out in 1995, and current peace initiatives have run out of steam," ICG Africa Program Co-Director John Prendergast said. "The recent escalation in fighting between competing factions backed by regional benefactors threatens the little local progress made on economic recovery and the rule of law.

"Renewed engagement, especially by the EU, US and UN, working closely with the key regional actors, is urgently needed to bring internal peace and state reconstruction," he said. "This is the only way to realise long-term counter-terrorism objectives".

The report provides a detailed assessment of the current political dynamics, the roles of neighbouring states, especially Egypt and Ethiopia, and the risks to Kenya from Somalia's instability. It also assesses the influence of the Somali Islamist organisation, al-Ittihad.

"The policy objective should, however, be wider than counter-terrorism," Prendergast said. "Diplomatic efforts should aim to defuse immediate tensions both inside Somalia and among competing regional states that threaten to plunge Somalia into wider war, and to strengthen the existing regional peace initiative." [Full report available]