Poverty and hostilities threaten transitional government

A combination of continuing insecurity and increasing poverty in Burundi form "a deadly combination" which threatens not only the survival of the transitional government but also that of the peace process as a whole, says a regional analyst, Jan van Eck, in a report just issued.

The credibility of the whole transition process was being questioned by a growing percentage of Burundians, he said, simply because the Burundian peace process had not produced any (positive) dividends for the people of the country.

Not only was there no inclusive ceasefire process between the Burundi government and the two excluded rebel movements - Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie-Forces pour la defense de la democratie and Forces nationales de liberation - but "there is no prospect of a durable cessation of hostilities or ceasefire being signed in the near future". Secondly, said van Eck, the money received from donors had not resulted in the people of Burundi experiencing any improvements in their daily lives. "Poverty, disease and misery is growing on a daily basis."

If the meetings being held in Pretoria, South Africa, from 22 to 30 April did not show significant progress, there would be no alternative but to reevaluate the whole ceasefire process, he said.

Although it was true, said van Eck, that the percentage of Burundians who supported the Arusha peace accord had always been very small, this number was now daily shrinking even further. This not only applied to the general population but to all key sectors within Burundi society. While many people were willing to give the Arusha accord a chance by adopting a "wait-and-see" attitude, developments since 1 November, when the transitional government was inaugurated, had resulted in people reconsidering this attitude, he said.

"If this massive disillusioned constituency were to be mobilised," said van Eck, "it could become a major threat to the transitional government". He added that the wisdom of signing the Arusha accord and installing the government in the absence of an inclusive ceasefire would now have to be seriously questioned.

Unless the key factors of poverty and an end to the war were addressed immediately, it was very unlikely that the transitional government would be able to continue implementing the Arusha accord, van Eck said. It was even more unlikely that the second 18 months of the transition, when a Hutu leader was to assume the presidency, would actually take place under these circumstances, he warned.

To request the complete report, write to [email protected]