Short rains boost to overall food security

A combination of fair 2001-02 short rains and an increased supply of maize has improved food security conditions across Kenya's worst-hit livelihood zones, according to the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS Net).

"Food security conditions have improved significantly during March as harvesting of the 2001 long- and short-rains crops concludes," FEWS Net said in its latest Food Security Update for Kenya.

However, there was a danger that rising food supplies and "dramatic reductions" in maize prices could cause surplus producers to respond by reducing the area put to maize, leading to possible shortfalls and increased prices in the future, the report said.

"The current beneficial impact of increased national maize availability on food security may, in fact, be short-lived," according to the USAID- and WFP-supported FEWS Net.

Of most concern were the key grain-producing districts of Rift Valley Province, where farmers had been forced to sell their maize output at below break-even prices, and had been limiting potential losses by reducing the area put to maize during the current long-rains season, the report said.

"The favourable outlook will be beneficial to consumers, but is a great disincentive to producers that are apprehensive of further declines in maize prices," it stated.

According to FEWS Net, Rift Valley Province normally accounts for more than 50 percent of national maize production, and a significant reduction in maize output in the province would have "serious implications" throughout the country. Moreover, farmers in Rift Valley had been unprepared for an early start to the long-rains season (typically March/April - May), with only "patchy" planting being undertaken so far, it said.

An erratic start to the long-rains season, coupled with indications that key producers in northern Rift Valley Province could reduce maize output, meant initial prospects for the 2002 long-rains cropping season were "gloomy", it said.

Many pastoralist areas of Kenya, particularly in the northwest, had also benefited from earlier than expected March rainfall, which had "substantially eased" the pressure on water, pasture and browse, improving livestock conditions and reducing mortalities, according to FEWS Net.

However, the productive capacities of livestock would take much longer to return to normal levels following three years of drought, and improvement would depend on a favourable long-rains season, it added.

Despite an overall improvement in conditions in the pastoralist districts, significant areas remain in poor condition, including much of Mandera District and parts of Turkana, Tana River and Wajir Districts.

"Nevertheless, continued pastoralist recovery, which is only barely under way, will critically depend on a successful 2002 long-rains season," the report added.