Latest ICG report analyses impasse in peace process

The failure of the inter-Congolese dialogue in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in October was foreseeable, according to a new report from the International Crisis Group, 'The Inter-Congolese Dialogue: Political Negotiation or a Game of Bluff?', that analyses the impasse in the peace process.

"President Joseph Kabila and his backers refuse to consider power-sharing through the dialogue with anti-government rebels without guarantees of Rwanda and Uganda's full withdrawal from DRC," the ICG stated on Friday. "At the same time, the rebels and their sponsors, including Rwanda and Uganda, refuse to consider full withdrawal until a transition government is established through the dialogue and their security is guaranteed. As a result, low-intensity conflict remains the preferred option for most of the external actors."

ICG central Africa project director Francois Grignon said: "Neither President Kabila's allies, nor his enemies, will allow full restoration of Congolese sovereignty and territorial integrity until their own political, economic and security 'shopping lists' have been satisfied. The international community should become more proactive in countering the dynamics that maintain the conflict in the Kivus. Until this occurs the inter-Congolese dialogue will remain a game of bluff."

ICG Africa programme co-director Fabienne Hara said the international community must recognise that the Kabila government was too weak to meet expectations without an external mediator or guarantor.

"The Lusaka cease-fire agreement, signed two years ago, must become a fully negotiated peace agreement," she said. "This requires much more active support for direct dialogue between the belligerents - ideally with the personal involvement of the UN Secretary-General. At the very least, the international community must establish a joint coordination mechanism on disarmament, demobilisation, repatriation, resettlement and reintegration (DDRRR) of the armed groups - as called for in UN Resolution 1376 of 7 November 2001."

According to ICG, "detailed preparation work must be undertaken, and lessons learned from the failure in Addis Ababa before any new meeting is called in South Africa. Energetic diplomacy is needed to bring the parties closer together and a detailed review of the entire process, including the methodology of the facilitation team, must be carried out."

ICG is a private, multinational organisation working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and contain conflict.

For the complete report, go to http://www.crisisweb.org