Region to meet cereal needs

Southern Africa’s cereal consumption requirements would be “more than met” this marketing season, according to the latest report by USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-Net).

In it’s regional food security update published on 23 August, FEWS Southern Africa said that according to official government production estimates, total production would meet approximately 80.5 percent of the region’s 2001/2002 cereal consumption requirements of more than 26 million mt. “Add to this planned imports and existing stock levels (6.9 million mt) and the region’s cereal consumption requirements will be more than met for all cereal commodities this marketing season,” the update said.

According to FEWS, taking into account production, opening stocks and planned imports, only a few countries showed a small cereal gap. “In the case of Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana and Swaziland, this gap will be filled through additional commercial imports, as traders assess domestic availability versus requirements and adjust their plans accordingly. In other countries, notably Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique and Angola, good tuber production, particularly cassava, will help fill some of the cereal gap through commodity cross-substitution,” the update said.

Other than war-torn Angola, Zambia was the only country in the region which had formally declared a food emergency and requested international assistance, the update said, adding: “The situation in Zimbabwe is not clear, given foreign exchange shortages and stringent barriers to trade.” However, the FEWS update said it was important to note that its analysis assumed a “partial or complete run-down of strategic reserves and stocks in most countries” and that efforts to restore reserves before the next harvest season would require additional imports.

Uncertain economic and social conditions in Zimbabwe, and the resulting drop in cereal production, was of “growing concern” because, with a large urban population and high unemployment and poverty rates, food shortages could ensue.

It has been anticipated that over 95 percent of maize trade in the SADC region will originate from South Africa. According to the update, traders in South Africa were expecting to export about 1.8 million mt of maize this season - including about 500,000 mt to Botswana, Swaziland, Namibia, Lesotho and Mozambique.

“According to various public and private supply and demand estimates, such export levels can largely be met from domestic South African supplies, without imports. However in reality, it is likely that some 100,000 mt to 250,000 mt of maize will be imported into South Africa in order to maintain carry over stocks at a comfortable level,” the update said. However, this scenario could change if local and global markets move. In addition to these recurring exports (to the five southern African countries), between 400,000 and 650,000 mt were expected to be exported from South Africa to Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, which all anticipate serious food shortages.
“An additional 70,000 mt or so is likely to be required for miscellaneous regional trade from South Africa to other SADC countries, while 150,000 mt has been pencilled in for regional food aid,” the update said.

Referring to other factors affecting the region’s food security, the FEWS update said that if the foot-and-mouth outbreak in Zimbabwe was not successfully contained, serious regional implications could follow. It also said that road and rail transport networks from South Africa to Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi would limit the amount of maize that could be transported to each country monthly to about 50,000 mt. “Anticipated trade in wheat and rice will further limit the amount of maize that can be traded between these countries this season. Thus, even if cereals can be sourced, their timely delivery cannot be assured,” FEWS noted.