Thinktank urges AU to resolve the Somaliland issue

An international thinktank has warned that independence claims by the self-declared republic of Somaliland could lead to a major conflict and has urged the African Union to engage in "preventive diplomacy".

Somaliland declared unilateral independence from the rest of Somalia in May 1991, following the collapse of the administration of former President Siyad Barre. In December 2005, it applied for membership in the AU. Its sovereignty, however, has not been recognised by Somalia or the international community. Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which is still struggling to overcome internal divisions and establish its authority in southern Somalia, claims dominion over the territory, and the independence issue has become a source of increasing tension.

"The African Union needs to engage in preventive diplomacy now, laying the groundwork for resolution of the dispute before it becomes a confrontation from which either side views violence as the only exit," the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report released on Tuesday.

ICG said that external mediators working in the south were focusing on restoring stability to the region before tackling the issue of Somaliland's secession. The thinktank warned, however, that it was time for the AU to take action.

"This approach risks both sides becoming more entrenched and the dispute over Somali unity more intractable. If the TFG's authority expands, the dispute over Somaliland's status is likely to become an ever-increasing source of friction, involving serious danger of violent conflict. Somaliland has reacted angrily to the TFG's calls for the United Nations arms embargo on Somalia to be lifted so it could arm itself and has threatened to increase its own military strength if this happens. The prospect of a return to the major violence of the late 1980s is neither imminent nor inevitable but it is genuine enough to merit urgent AU attention," the ICG said.

The Brussels-based thinktank recommended the AU appoint a special envoy to consult with all relevant parties and, within six months, report on the security and political dimensions of the dispute; prepare a resume of the factual and legal basis of the dispute; and offer options for resolution.

ICG also advised the pan-African body to organise an informal consultation for members of the AU Peace and Security Council, involving presentations by eminent scholars, political analysts and legal experts to discuss how best to deal with the Somaliland question. Pending final resolution of the dispute, the AU could also grant Somaliland interim observer status so that both sides could participate in sessions on Somali issues, make presentations and respond to questions from member states.

The full report is available on: www.crisisgroup.org