Size of pockets to decide food security

Affordability and not availability will determine food security in Zimbabwe in the coming months, analysts said after the government announced it was expecting a much-improved maize crop this year. "With inflation at 1,042.9 percent, most food items are beyond ordinary Zimbabweans' reach," commented John Makumbe, a senior political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe. Minister of Agriculture Joseph Made told parliament on Monday that the country was expected to produce 1.8 million mt of maize, the official Herald newspaper reported. Most food security analysts believe that Zimbabwe's annual requirement is 1.4 million mt. The Zimbabwean government had banned independent crop surveys, including a joint assessment with the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. An earlier forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture estimated production at 900,000 mt, an improvement on last year's disasterous crop as a result of good rainfall. Zimbabwe is recovering from four years of food shortages caused by erratic weather conditions, the impact of the chaotic fast-track land reform programme on the agricultural sector and a critical lack of foreign currency to import inputs, such as fuel and fertiliser. In recent years the government has battled to provide maizemeal at subsidised prices to help contain the crisis, and shortages have been a recurrent problem. "Affordability will be the key test: while maizemeal is affordable, as its price is controlled by government, ordinary Zimbabweans cannot buy other equally important sources of vitamins, such as vegetables, or protein, such as dairy or meat," said an analyst who did not want to be named. A kilo of meat can cost up to US$9 and a loaf of bread almost 80 US cents, but most households earn less than $100 a month. The government's attempts to control prices has helped fuel inflation, according to Makumbe. The government has been buying maize from farmers at $306 per tonne and then selling it at a subisdised rate of about $20 per tonne to millers. "So how is government covering the loss in the transaction? By printing more money." Makumbe said the government was "desperate to show that their land reform exercise, which they have been implementing since 2000, has worked, and that they have been able to produce more than the white commercial farmers". The evidence, however, is that agricultural output - which underpinned the economy - suffered a severe setback, affecting export earnings, due in part to the government's difficulty in supporting the new farmers.