The implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in January between the Sudanese government and the southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) is badly behind schedule, a think-tank said on Monday.
In a report titled: "The Khartoum-SPLM Agreement: Sudan's Uncertain Peace", the International Crisis Group (ICG), said implementation of the CPA had been delayed by several obstacles.
These included Khartoum's lack of will to embrace genuine power-sharing and elections, and lack of capacity in the south to establish and empower basic structures of governance.
"To keep the accords on track, the international community must focus on broadening participation and transparency, particularly handling of oil revenues, promote SPLM/[A] dialogue with the government-allied militias and quickly deploy the UN peace support mission," the report said.
The CPA posed "a real threat to many groups associated with the National Congress Party regime, which signed the CPA under duress both to deflect international pressure over Darfur and to strengthen its domestic power base by securing a partnership with the SPLM[A]".
"Most members recognise the free and fair elections required in 2009 would likely remove them from power," it noted. "Many also fear the self-determination referendum will produce an independent south, thus costing Khartoum much of its oil and other mineral wealth."
The ICG urged the SPLM/A to prevent an eventual breakdown of the CPA and a return to war, by making fundamental shifts in the way it operates.
"It is far behind its timetable for converting its guerrillas into a new army and has made little progress in creating institutional structures of governance and changing overly centralised methods of taking decisions, weaknesses that have been compounded by lack of money," it said.
"There is growing frustration as early expectations of the peace have not been met," the ICG added. "The SPLM[A] leadership must begin to democratise its movement and empower the nascent civil institutions of the new Government of Southern Sudan."
The report added: "Given that Khartoum's approach to oil has long been problematic, it is urgent to create the National Petroleum Commission called for in the CPA's Wealth Sharing Agreement so it can review all contracts signed in the past year."
The report, which contains several recommendations, can be found at: [
www.crisisgroup.org]