International pressure needed to end northern conflict - ICG

Negotiations aimed at ending the war in northern Uganda could fail unless the international community and the Ugandan government act decisively to ensure peace returns to the region, the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned on Monday. "The peace process will disintegrate without more vigorous [and] sustained international, particularly US, support," Suliman Baldo, the think-tank's Africa programme director, said in a media release. Uganda’s government and the rebel movement, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), have fought a bloody conflict in the north for 19 years. Tens of thousands of people have been killed or abducted, and up to 1.6 million displaced from their homes, according to the UN. In December, mediators led by former government minister Betty Bigombe arranged the first face-to-face meeting between senior government officials and LRA commanders. Two ceasefires followed, but negotiations stalled after the defection of several senior LRA commanders to the government, including Sam Kolo, the LRA’s chief negotiator. In a policy briefing entitled "Shock therapy for northern Uganda's peace process", the ICG called on the international community, particularly Norway, the UK, the Netherlands and the US - which it said had "considerable influence over Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni" - to work closely with the government and Bigombe to create a stronger mediation team. "All four countries should appoint senior envoys to lend their efforts more credibility with the [warring] parties," it said. America has been preoccupied with events in Sudan, the ICG stated, despite the fact that the viability of the recent peace deal between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army was intertwined with the fate of the Sudan-based LRA. "Washington should realise that, as distasteful as the LRA is, a settlement would save Uganda from much additional suffering - and also help smooth implementation of the Sudanese peace deal," the report said. For the Ugandan peace process to succeed, it added, substantial international monitoring would be required. Moreover, should negotiations result in a full-fledged settlement, the UN Security Council should be prepared to authorise peacekeeping forces. According to the ICG, neither the Ugandan government nor the LRA appeared fully committed to a negotiated settlement. The think-tank accused the government of preferring a military solution, thereby making diplomatic options less viable. Monday’s statement said that Uganda’s government needed to work out a peace proposal that was more than merely another ceasefire offer. John Prendergast, special adviser to the ICG’s president, said in the report: "If the [Ugandan] government really wants to make this work, it will have to replace its ceasefire-first approach with a deal that includes appropriate security guarantees for [LRA leader Joseph] Kony and his commanders - and a peace dividend to help rebuild war-ravaged communities." According to the briefing, although the LRA has been hampered by the Ugandan military’s improved performance, as well as reduced support from Sudan and pressure from an International Criminal Court war-crimes investigation, reports that the insurgency was on its deathbed were greatly exaggerated. "From a base in southern Sudan, the LRA is reorganising for intensified conflict and has launched an aggressive campaign [in northern Uganda] of abductions, mutilations, and raids on arms depots," it noted. The full report is available at: www.crisisgroup.org