Escalating prices restrict access to food

Estimates of food aid needs in Zimbabwe should be revised as maize prices have climbed well above anticipated levels, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has warned. "Due to much higher than expected maize prices, and no evidence of commensurate increases in rural incomes, the rural population in need of food aid is almost certainly higher than that originally estimated by the ZimVAC [Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee] in May 2004," FEWS NET said in its latest food security report. Meanwhile, increases in general prices "continue to limit the ability of poor urban households, who make up close to 70 percent of Zimbabwe's urban population, to buy the food they need," the report noted. The ZimVAC had estimated that about 2.2 million rural people would need about 50,000 mt of cereal food aid between August and November 2004. The figure was based on the assumption that grain would be available from the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) at Zim $471 per kilogram (about US $0.08). "However, maize grain prices, which are normally expected to start rising in the December-January period, started increasing soon after the harvest in May-June, and are now at least Zim $720/kg [US $0.12] in GMB markets. They have risen to as high as Zim $1,000/kg [about US $0.17] in some of the parallel markets," the report noted. "The initial ZimVAC estimates [for food aid requirements in rural areas] need to be revised in line with the higher prices," FEWS NET said. In urban areas the impact of high inflation on food security has been severe. "The annual food inflation rate for September is at 264.8 percent, as reported by the Central Statistical Office. Despite a steady decrease from the high of 622 percent in January 2004 to the September annual rate of 251.5 percent, the inflation rate remains amongst the highest in the world," the report said. It noted that "the annual inflation rate in neighbouring South Africa, a major regional trade partner, was just 3.7 percent in September 2004". According to the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe's (CCZ) monitoring system, a family of six required about Zim $1.4 million (US $248) to purchase sufficient basic commodities and other essential services in August this year. In September the same family would have seen an increase of 6.6 percent in the cost of the minimum basket to just under Zim $1.5 million (US $266). FEWS NET said the incomes of poor urban households continued to lag behind the cost of the monthly needs basket, with minimum monthly wages for commercial employees averaging Zim $437,500 (US $77.65) in September 2004.