Drop in crop production forecast

An expected drop in Malawi's crop production will negatively affect the food security of households in the country's southern region, according to the latest report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). After a second round of crop assessments by Malawi's National Statistics Office, the anticipated maize harvest is now estimated at 1.73 million mt - 13 percent less than last year's production of 1.98 million mt. FEWS NET said the second round of assessments "confirmed and factored into the analysis the late onset of rains and a prolonged dry spell, which occurred at a critical [crop] development stage, especially in the southern region. These developments adversely affected production, lowering initial estimates". A third and final round of assessments will be conducted soon. "The short-term household food security situation has improved with the current harvest, but this will be short-lived in many parts of the southern region, where a number of households are expected to start experiencing food shortages as early as July/August due to the poor harvest," FEWS NET warned, adding that "many households in the southern region will require food aid this year to compensate for food shortages caused by a combination of their own crop losses and higher prices". Just how much food aid will be needed, and for how many beneficiaries, will be determined by the final analysis of the Vulnerability Assessment Committee report, expected later this month. The government plans to contract farmers to grow winter maize and expects 250,000 mt to be produced, which should help to offset the shortfall. The National Food Reserve Agency has also issued a tender for the purchase of 28,000 mt of maize to replenish the strategic grain reserve (SGR). "Although the stated preference is to purchase this grain locally, supplies from neighbouring countries (Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia) will be considered. Replenishing the SGR stocks will help the government ensure that maize is readily available in the market, at prices households can afford," FEWS NET noted.