Rising numbers in need of food aid

The number of Zimbabweans needing food aid next year is expected to rise well beyond original estimates, according to new research. Aid agencies had forecast that 5.5 million people - half of the population - would require food aid during the pre-harvest months of January, February and March 2004. However, the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) report on Zimbabwe noted that "the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee has revised the estimates of the rural population in need of food assistance from October to December to 4.1 million, and for January to March to 5.1 million". World Food Programme (WFP) spokesman Richard Lee told IRIN the original estimates indicated 4.4 million people in rural areas would need food assistance from January to March 2004, with an additional 1.1 million urban residents bringing the total to 5.5 million nationally. However, "if the FEWS report is saying the number in rural areas is over 5 million, then we are looking at more than 6 million people in need for the whole country, if you include the original estimate for urban areas". WFP had been concerned for some time that needs were outstripping the earlier estimates, mainly due to Zimbabwe's economic decline. Lee noted that with rising numbers of people requiring help, WFP "really does need extra donations, particularly cash, so that we can buy food and speed up the process of getting food to beneficiaries in Zimbabwe who need it". IRIN reported last month that the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) had warned in an appeal to donors: "what began as a food crisis in Zimbabwe in 2002 has grown into a major humanitarian emergency, with people suffering the effects of a deteriorating economy, HIV/AIDS, depleted social services and policy constraints". OCHA pointed out that "as the country enters its fifth successive year of economic decline, Zimbabwe faces critical shortages of foreign exchange to maintain essential infrastructure, and inflation has soared", leading to greater vulnerability in urban areas. An urban vulnerability assessment is currently underway in Zimbabwe, which Lee said "would give us even more accurate statistics on the situation in key urban areas". It was highly unlikely that the assessment would show a decrease in urban vulnerability. "I very much doubt the figure will be less than the original estimate, given the continuing economic problems in Zimbabwe," Lee said. During 2002/03 crisis, vulnerability peaked at around 7 million. The latest figure indicated that people in need were "still less than in [2002/03] but, clearly, it is still a very serious crisis, and we are still struggling to get enough resources to meet the original estimates", Lee stressed. "If the numbers continue to rise we are going to find it even more difficult to meet the needs in the country," he warned. FEWS NET reported that access to food for both urban and rural people "remains a serious concern, as the prices of basic commodities and all other basic services continue to rise at astronomical rates". It warned that the total cereal gap of 493,000 mt "still remains unfilled, and [the] government's capacity to respond continues to be seriously compromised". Last month aid agencies requested US $109.4 million to meet outstanding funding requirements for their Zimbabwe programmes.