Renewed warning over drought threat

Two UN agencies have warned that the lives of over one million people in Eritrea are under threat due to a prolonged drought in the country.

In a joint report, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) noted that rainfall had been poor since October 2001 "with almost total failure of the March-June azmera rains and the late onset of June-September kremti rains".

The cereal harvest - forecast at 74 000 mt - is expected to be 60 percent below the average of the last 10 years, the report said. It will cover only about 15 percent of Eritrea's food requirement instead of the average 40-50 percent.

The agencies warned that international assistance will be needed to cover a shortfall of 283,000 mt.

The report is based on a two-week joint crop and food supply assessment mission conducted in late August, a month after the Eritrean government declared a national drought emergency.

"Due to pervasive poverty, all of Eritrea is susceptible to food insecurity," the report said. "However, the drought-prone regions of Northern Red Sea, Southern Red Sea and many parts of Anseba are particularly vulnerable."

"The current poor agricultural season could not have come at a worse time," it added. "Eritrea is just recovering from a devastating border war with neighbouring Ethiopia. A large number of people, including farmers, are still displaced and thousands of soldiers are yet to be demobilised. Furthermore, the continuing resettlement of Eritrean refugees returning from Sudan is an extra strain on the country's resources."

The agencies said they were particularly concerned for over a million of the country's most vulnerable people (about a third of the country's population). They will require 140,000 mt of food next year.

However, "other populations may also need food assistance before the end of 2003, depending on cereal, water and pasture availability and cereal prices later in the year", the report cautioned.

"Emergency food aid will be required at least until the harvest at the end of next year, in order to prevent loss of human life, destitution, liquidation of minimal productive assets and distress migration," it said.

Pastoralists have also been seriously affected. The number of livestock - mainly goats, sheep and cattle - has diminished in some districts by up to 20 percent from their 2001 levels. There is a lack of pasture for grazing in most areas of the country.

The report says that while emergency food aid needs in Eritrea during 2003 will be extensive, "it should be noted that in many areas, there is a risk of people developing an over-reliance on food aid with the expectation that this assistance will be provided on a regular basis".

"This is proving destructive to some traditional coping strategies, and creating a vicious cycle that can lead to dependency," the report pointed out. "Therefore, it is critical that emergency food aid be provided only to those who cannot survive or will become destitute without it."

[Full report]