Rwanda begins withdrawal from North Kivu

Rwanda began the withdrawal of troops from North Kivu Province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on Friday.

Radio Okapi reported that 667 soldiers, who had been based in Masisi, withdrew on Friday in 12 separate lorries. The convoy passed through Goma where it was observed by the United Nations Mission in the DRC, known as MONUC.

The withdrawal of Rwandan troops could be finished by the end of next week at the latest, commented James Kabarebe, Chief of Staff of the Rwandan Patriotic Army, on Radio Okapi. He asked the Congolese to make preparations for the protection of their own security, and announced the commencement of withdrawals from South Kivu on 1 October.

Meanwhile, the Economist Intelligence Unit has warned of signs of a "potentially frightening breakdown" in the region, as a result of the Rwandan withdrawal. The Rwandan-backed rebel group governing much of eastern DRC, the Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie (RCD-Goma), suddenly looks much weaker and open to score settling, says the EIU, in the wake of attacks last week by Mayi-Mayi militia groups in Kindu.

"The fighting between the Mayi-Mayi and the RCD has resulted in precisely the situation the president [Paul Kagame] warned the United Nations against," the think-tank quoted Rwanda's director of information, Nicholas Shailta, as saying.

In the absence of any international appetite for peacekeeping in the region, and the potential for anarchy, analysts warn that Rwanda could turn the situation to its advantage. "The withdrawal of Rwandan troops may have the effect of leaving the place in chaos. Then Rwanda could turn around to the international community and say 'we told you so'," the EIU quoted Richard Cornwell, an analyst at the Pretoria-based Institute of Security Studies, as saying. "It [Rwanda] would have the moral high ground."

Others have pointed to the fact that throughout Rwanda's occupation of eastern DRC, there has been widespread conflict.