Agreement between gov't and MLC; RCD excluded

An agreement which could reunify most of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was signed on Friday by the majority of delegates at the inter-Congolese dialogue in Sun City, South Africa. However, the signing session was not recognised by the dialogue organisers, who had been hoping for an inclusive agreement involving all the main groups in conflict.

"There was an avalanche of support for the [Kinshasa] government," one observer told IRIN. "This is a big coup for the government."

The deal, which was first worked out between Kinshasa authorities and the Ugandan-backed rebel Mouvement pour la liberation du Congo (MLC), keeps 30 year-old Joseph Kabila as president and makes MLC leader Jean-Pierre Bemba prime minister. The Rwandan-backed rebel Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie (RCD-Goma), however, refused to sign, with no prolongation of the talks expected.

There will be a parliament, but it will not be allowed to vote a motion of no confidence in the government. The agreement mentions an electoral commission, but does not set a date for elections.

On Thursday, the RCD called for another extension of the talks, which were originally scheduled to end last Friday 12 April, but the motion was not approved. "The government and MLC won't accept a continuation of the dialogue, especially with the facilitator's current team," one European Union diplomat told IRIN. A source close to South African President Thabo Mbeki stressed that the partial agreement would not end the war.

International observers in Sun City were divided as to whether a partial agreement that excludes the RCD was a failure. "Some countries, notably France and Canada, have encouraged the Congolese at the dialogue to make a show of unity against Rwandan military occupation of the territory controlled by the RCD," said one such observer. "They may or may not have reckoned on a show of unity turning into a government which has excluded the RCD."

Mbeki made a last-ditch effort on Thursday night to mediate among the government and its allies and the RCD, which controls about a third of the DRC. When the facilitation moved to adjourn the session at 1 am, Mbeki reportedly said that if he were Congolese, he would have stayed up later.

On Friday, before a DRC government minister handed out copies of the agreement to sign, talks facilitator Ketumile Masire said the agreement was outside the framework of the dialogue. The signing session followed a full assembly of all 350 delegates, where a series of committee resolutions were approved. Resolutions on the economy and peace and reconciliation were approved, but delegates were worried that they may not be implemented until there is an overall political agreement.

There was no dialogue resolution on power sharing, which is the crux of the issue in DRC. In 52 days of committee meetings, the parties failed to agree on a formula that would reunite the whole of the country.

Of some 33 opposition parties, all but about eight seemed to have signed the agreement. The eight dissidents included the Union pour la Democratie et le Progres Social (UDPS) led by veteran oppositionist Etienne Tshisekedi, and other parties led by men who have served long prison terms under previous dictatorships. But their support at the grassroots is uncertain, since there have been no free national elections since independence in 1960.

There were rumours on Thursday night that Tshisekedi might join an alliance with RCD-Goma and set up a government in Kisangani, the DRC's third-largest city, currently under RCD control. However, many dismissed this as a desperate move, noting that the population of Kisangani, a trading town on the Congo River which has lost its commercial link with the capital, wants reunion with Kinshasa.

If the deal works out between the government of Joseph Kabila, the MLC of Jean-Pierre Bemba, the RCD-ML (Mouvement de liberation) factions and the smaller RCD-N (Nationale) faction, people in 70 percent of the country should be able to circulate freely, and several internal barriers to trade would come down, boosting the shattered economy. On the other hand, such a change in the balance of power could fuel the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, where RCD-Goma and Rwandan forces are fighting Rwandan and Burundian rebels, including some guilty of genocide, as well as Congolese Mayi-Mayi guerillas and Congolese Tutsis, known as Banyamulenge.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's government had been giving mixed signals throughout the dialogue, but on Thursday appeared to give the agreement its blessing. Observers say Uganda was instrumental in arranging the deal.