Anxious wait for government peace plan

Angolans waited anxiously on Monday for a promised government statement on its plan to resume peace talks with rebel movement UNITA, as the humanitarian situation in the country continued to deteriorate.

Reverend Daniel Ntoni-Nzinga, executive secretary of the Inter-Ecclesiastical Committee for Peace in Angola (COIEPA), told IRIN on Monday that "we are all in standby positions, there is not any clear picture ... A promise has been made that the government is going to make a statement this week outlining its plans for the peace process".

President Jose Eduardo dos Santos' office said in a statement on Friday that the president had endorsed a plan to be announced this week. AFP quoted the statement as saying that the plan included "concrete and immediate measures" and stressed the government's "availability (to consider) all signals that could contribute to a definitive peace in a spirit of openness".

The past week has been characterised by confusion in Angola as reports emerged that UNITA's leadership was in tatters. In addition to long-time rebel leader Dr Jonas Savimbi's death in combat in the eastern province of Moxico on 22 February, there is an probe under way to determine whether his successor, General Antonio Dembo, has also been killed. Three of Savimbi's widows claim to have buried him after he died of starvation.

"We don't know what UNITA is saying. There is no communication with the leadership since the death of its leader (Savimbi) ... Our usual channels (of communication) are very dependent on the leadership, but the leadership is in a critical stage and they can't even communicate with each other," Ntoni-Nzinga said. COIEPA has been at the forefront of civil society efforts to facilitate a ceasefire and peace talks between the government and UNITA.

He said he hoped the government plan would include a "response to the humanitarian situation". "One thing that is clear is that the humanitarian situation is really, really bad ... There are more people in serious need now than we had two or three weeks ago. How it will improve depends on the capacity to respond to those needs. If we failed to respond to needs that were already there, how hard will it be to respond? We still hope we will develop the capacity," he said.

Ntoni-Nzinga's comments followed UN reports last week detailing the deteriorating humanitarian situation. In a special report released on 7 March, OCHA said the situation in Angola was "deteriorating sharply".

"Despite the recent death of the head of UNITA, Jonas Savimbi, military operations are ongoing. Partners estimate that if current trends continue, approximately 300,000 thousand Angolans will become newly displaced during the next six months, bringing the total number of displaced in the country to 4.6 million and increasing the current emergency caseload by nearly 25 percent. The humanitarian operation is stretched to the limit," the report said.

"UN agencies and NGOs are already operating at full capacity and do not have sufficient resources to address the critical needs of additional internally displaced persons. Millions of vulnerable people are living in life-threatening conditions and more will be at serious risk if action is not taken immediately," it added.

According to the report:
-Displacement levels had steadily increased as a result of counter-insurgency operations and guerrilla activities - from 47,100 in November, to 48,800 in December, to 49,500 in January.
-The number of children separated from their families because of sudden and disorganised displacement was increasing markedly, most notably in the provinces of Moxico, Bie, Huambo and Kwanza Sul. "Approximately 4,650 separated children were registered in 17 provinces during the last six months of 2001. Partners estimate that more than 100,000 children are currently separated from their birth families throughout the country."
-In several locations with high concentrations of newly arrived internally displaced persons (IDPs), malnutrition rates among both displaced and resident communities have reached alarming levels. "In January global and severe malnutrition rates in Caconda were recorded at 20.7 and 5.3 percent among displaced children between six and 59 months of age. Among resident children of the same age, global and severe rates were recorded at 11.2 and 2.7 percent respectively."
-Morbidity and mortality rates had reached "alarming levels", particularly in areas with large concentrations of displaced populations, and had been as high as 12.6 per 10,000 deaths per day among under-fives in Caconda.
-More than 84,000 new IDPs were in urgent need of essential survival items and shelter in nine different locations.

OCHA said conditions were most serious in the provinces of Bie, Huambo, Huila and Moxico, where tens of thousands of IDPs had poured into municipal centres in search of security and assistance in recent months. Last week the UN refugee agency UNHCR said Angolans were not reported to be crossing the borders en masse in search of safety and assistance.

While local news reports said there had been no serious UNITA attacks or ambushes in the last few days, it was not clear whether remaining UNITA leaders had decided to regroup to consider their next move or whether they were indicating a willingness to cease hostilities. The government said last week it was waiting for a sign from the rebel movement that it was ready to resume negotiations over the 1994 Lusaka Peace Accord. UNITA has insisted on just such a signal from the government.

According to Angolan national radio, coordinator of the government's Peace and National Reconciliation Commission and
Minister of Interior, Fernando da Piedade Dias dos Santos, said on Monday that there had been "signs of good sense and moderation" from UNITA rebels in the bushes. The minister said the government had not received "all the signs expected" from UNITA's forces, but that the Angolan Armed Forces (FAA) were instructed to establish channels of communication with fighters in the field.

He was reported as saying that the expected government announcement would create conditions for the cessation of hostilities, a ceasefire and then renewed talks.