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The Brussels-based think tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG), warned on Thursday that the return of peace to Sierra Leone was dependent upon sustained international pressure and stringent security policy.
Noting that the rebel Revolutionary United Front's (RUF) commitment to peace was "fragile", ICG said that the prevailing situation in the country of "no war, no peace", was one of both "great jeopardy and great opportunity".
It warned that the country's history of stalled or collapsed peace processes may yet repeat itself if the next seven months are not managed with care. Elections are scheduled for 14 May 2002.
ICG emphasised that a core component of the international community's strategy should be to achieve "Security First". "Security First", as a strategy, would mean achieving durable security throughout the country well before the May elections, ICG said.
However, this would require full disarmament of the RUF, a robust deployment of the UN Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL), and a credible and coordinated deterrent force that would include the British Army, UNAMSIL, and the Sierra Leone Army (SLA), ICG said.
According to ICG, "Security First" would also require that UNAMSIL demand a far more stringent disarmament and demobilsation process and adopt a firmer approach in its negotiations with the RUF.
The strategy must also be directed at possible "spoilers" in the peace process besides the RUF, particularly the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) and the Kamajor Civil Defence Forces (CDF), a pro-government militia.
The group noted the UN and the British government need to urgently consider the regional dimensions of the conflict. It also called on donor countries to immediately provide sufficient funds for the reintegration programme promised to ex-combatants.
"The international community should proceed with more caution than optimism," it said.
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