Pastoralists face hardship if rain forecast holds true

Poor rains are expected in parts of Kenya for the fifth consecutive rainy season, and a lot of hopes are resting on the short rains now due, although the forecast for September/December is not good, UNOCHA Kenya stated on Thursday in a report covering the month of September. "Much hope now hinges on the anticipated short rains, as the dry season hits hard and pasture and potable water are becoming more and more scarce, increasing tensions and therefore skirmishes around access to resources," the report said.

Exacerbating the situation, it was the severely drought affected pastoral areas in the north and east, as well as marginal agricultural areas in eastern and southeastern Kenya, that were more likely to receive below normal rainfall, it said. This could delay the recovery of livestock already affected by drought, and increase hardship for their owners, it added. The areas worst affected were Mandera, Isiolo, Wajir and northern parts of Turkana, Garissa and Tana River districts, according to OCHA.

The food security outlook for pastoralists remained of concern and there were reports that malnutrition rates had begun to rise in Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Mandera districts, it said. The health of children in some pastoralist areas was also likely to deteriorate due to reduced milk availability, livestock having been moved to dry-season grazing earlier than usual, it added. There was already evidence of overgrazing in parts, and areas with good resources were inaccessible due to insecurity, according to OCHA. The key recommendations from the Kenya Food Security Meeting (KFSM) were: that water sources in dry-season grazing areas should be rehabilitated; security should be strengthened and peace initiatives encouraged [to avoid continuing clashes in Turkana, Samburu, Mandera and Tana River, among other areas]; and that supplementary feeding should be continued, it noted.

Kenya's drought status is to be assessed in an exercise beginning in mid-November, in districts currently receiving relief food as well as marginal agricultural and coastal districts, the report stated. In addition to emergency needs, the assessment would look at longer-term problems and focus on more detailed livelihoods analysis, it added.