No real breakthrough yet, analyst says

Although a lot of fine-tuning is still needed for the full implementation of the Burundi peace accord, the naming of President Pierre Buyoya to lead the first phase of the transition is a “definite step forward”, Burundi analyst Jan van Eck said on Thursday. But he warned there could be no real breakthrough until various sticking points were discussed and a possible compromise found. Otherwise the impasse could continue. Van Eck, an analyst with the Pretoria-based Centre for International Policy Studies, said leadership of the transition had been one of the critical issues and had created a stalemate in the country’s peace process. “For the past eight months there was a campaign to exclude the government, and particularly Buyoya, from the transition period,” he told IRIN. “This was a campaign that could not succeed because there is nowhere that an incumbent government, often involved in negotiations, can be excluded from the transition.” Burundi peace mediator, Nelson Mandela, and the regional heads of state moved in “firmly and categorically” to state that Buyoya would lead the first 18 months of the three-year transition, he said. “This helped the decision a great deal,” he said. “The parties had to accept it and there was no room for rejection as such.” But, he added, “that does not mean they like the decision”. Various sticking points would have to be thrashed out during the summit of regional heads of state, planned for 23 July in Arusha, Tanzania. Van Eck pointed out that the G10 group of pro-Tutsi parties was split. Five had endorsed Buyoya’s appointment, while the remaining five said they would make their views known at the summit. These parties, which supported the candidacy of Colonel Epitace Bayaganakandi to lead the transition as Tutsi president, “are coming to terms with the announcement, but are not excited by it”, he said. Furthermore, the group of seven Hutu parties (G7) raised “serious” problems when the facilitator read out a list of 11 conditions attached to Buyoya’s appointment. They rejected the conditions, saying they “wanted to beef them up”. Van Eck said they had since produced a 12-page document with “stringent conditions” for Buyoya to adhere to. This document will also be discussed at the summit. “If Buyoya cannot accept the conditions, then the impasse will continue,” Van Eck warned, adding that this could lead to tension. At the Pretoria meeting, Mandela also decided that the ruling UPRONA party and the main opposition FRODEBU party were now the key players in the country’s peace process and this “caused a bit of chaos”, Van Eck observed. “It came as a shock to the smaller parties who felt Mandela had written them off,” he said. “But this is a major change which has even reshaped the hierarchical order of the parties...This approach has taken the peace process back to its original set up in 1995/96 when responsibility was held by the leadership of UPRONA and FRODEBU.”