UN expects mass return of refugees

The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is preparing for a voluntary return of large numbers of Afghan refugees from Iran and Pakistan after winter ends and the overall situation in Afghanistan becomes relatively conducive to such a return.

"If the security situation improves and people feel that their security is guaranteed, then we anticipate that a large number of people will opt to return," a UNHCR spokesman, Yusuf Hassan, told IRIN on Monday in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.

Whereas Hassan said it was hard to determine exactly how many people would head for home, the refugee agency was using a figure of up to one million for planning purposes - about 25 percent of the total number of Afghans who were either refugees in neighbouring countries or internally displaced. "But the figure of one million is purely for planning purposes, it is hard to say exactly how many," he noted.

Pakistan and Iran each host more than two million Afghan refugees.

Hassan said those who voluntarily wished to return to Afghanistan would be assisted by UNHCR in collaboration with other UN agencies, including WFP, which might provide such returnees with food aid. "The repatriation package may include a cash grant, food and maybe some other materials," he said. UNHCR carried out a small-scale voluntary repatriation programme in 2001, preceded by a slightly more extensive one in 2000.

According to UNHCR figures, 77,000 refugees returned from Pakistan and 216,000 from Iran in 2000. Figures for 2001 were not immediately available.

Afghans constitute one of the largest refugee populations in the world, having fled during more than 20 years of war and from the worst drought ever - now in its third year, and a volatile and insecure environment. Lack of employment opportunities, schools and health facilities, and an abundance of land mines represent major deterrents to potential returnees.

"It's still not conducive for a major return," Hassan stressed. "But hopefully there will be more stability by spring, and thus there will be more people wishing to return."

Afghan refugees in Pakistan were keenly watching the new interim administration, sworn in on 22 December, as to how it would address issues like improving living conditions, security, job opportunities and stability, he said. "Maybe it will be difficult to see all that happening by spring, but, if there is a good beginning, people will feel encouraged."

The interim administration has been set up to remain in place for six months to pave the way for a broad-based multiethnic government, which is expected to restore peace and stability in Afghanistan. The task of reconstructing Afghanistan is being spearheaded by the UN and several international organisations, backed by the world community.