Peace prospects "slim"

The latest analysis by Oxford Analytica (OA) on the Burundi situation has concluded that prospects for lasting peace are slim and the potential for humanitarian disaster remains high. The analysis, issued on Monday, noted that international attention was now focusing more closely on Burundi "as Hutu rebel groups increasingly coordinate attacks across neighbouring borders". "The flow of refugees across international borders has become a very serious problem and is compounding the pre-existing instability in the Great Lakes region." Internal displacement was also becoming critical, OA added. It said the main obstacles facing the Arusha peace process, under the new mediation of Nelson Mandela, were amnesty for combatants, the restoration of democracy and the improvement of internal security. "Successful negotiations depend on whether the respective leaders can avoid stipulating conditions that are unrealistic and work towards compromises that promote peace," it said.