Regional food security update

Southern Africa yet again faces the possibility of food shortages, the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) says
in its latest update on food security in the region.

According to FEWS, the region was generally expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for much of the rainy season which is traditionally from about December through to March. Instead, what most of southern Africa experienced was extended dry spells or excessive rains. These two extremes hit agricultural production in much of the region.

Severe and extended dry spells in countries such as Malawi, Zambia and Zambia especially towards the end of December had the effect of delaying the planting process or forcing many farmers to replant their lost crops. FEWS cautioned that maize, the staple food for most of the region, was one of the crops which was likely to be affected. Maize is more sensitive to dry
conditions than for example sorghum or millet.

According to the update, Zimbabwe's harvest was likely to be lower than last year. This could result in communal households who are reliant on crop incomes experiencing some kind of food insecurity in the coming months. Below-normal rainfall in most of Zambia led many farmers to delay planting their crops beyond the normal planting time of late November to mid December, and in some cases farmers were still busy planting in early
January. FEWS said that concerns about the poor rains during the main rainy season (October to December) saw maize grain supplies dwindle. It added that traders had found it difficult to buy maize in the countryside because farmers had reduced sales as a "precautionary measure." In turn traders also appeared to have held back their limited supplies, selling maize in smaller
quantities.

All crops in Malawi were affected by the erratic start to the main rainy season, but maize posed the most serious concerns FEWS said. The agency added that an increased demand for maize drove market prices up by an estimated 19 percent in December in the south and by an estimated 27 percent in the central regions. According to FEWS, by the middle of December official maize stocks were about 225,000 mt.

In the case of Mozambique, much of December was characterised by dry spells in the northern and central regions and excessive rain in much of the south. FEWS said that as yet it was still too early to determine the effects of these erratic rainfall patterns on the March/April harvest.

By the end of November last year, cereal stocks had dropped to 360,000 mt compared with 460,000 mt in September. But, according to the update, these stocks combined with the first crops from 1999/2000 season would be more than sufficient to meet national demands until April, and lower maize prices meant that more households were able to buy maize to meet their needs.