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Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.
On our radar
Sudan war backing continues despite horror at El Fasher massacre
It’s been nearly two weeks since the RSF seized El Fasher, and they are still disposing of the people they killed. Satellite images analysed by Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab show burning objects consistent with human bodies, as well as evidence the group has closed a critical escape route out of the city. Meanwhile, our reporters have documented that those who left are being systematically kidnapped for ransom – and executed if they cannot pay. Reports are also emerging that the RSF has carried out drone strikes in Khartoum state just hours after claiming to have accepted a ceasefire proposed by the “Quad” group, which includes the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. Mediators often treat the RSF as the more cooperative party compared to the Sudanese army – which has yet to commit to the latest truce – yet the group never stops its massacres, taking El Fasher even as it sat for talks in Washington. Quad powers, too, are playing a double game: championing diplomacy while fuelling the war. Egypt is reportedly weighing deeper support for the army in the wake of El Fasher, while Emirati arms continue to flow to the RSF – all under the watch of a US administration that, just last week, described the UAE as “a force for peaceful prosperity”.
Is an al-Qaeda franchise really about to take the Malian capital?
The al-Qaeda-linked JNIM group is imposing a punishing fuel blockade on Bamako that has now lasted for two months. But does that mean the militants are about to seize the capital and end the war? Recent headlines might have you think so. “Jihadis encircle Mali’s capital as they close in on power,” declared the Financial Times. “Al Qaeda Is on the Brink of Taking Over a Country,” warned the Wall Street Journal. Some observers view these claims as overblown or Western projections rooted in frustration with a ruling junta that ditched French troops for Russian mercenaries; others worry about minimising the ambitions of armed groups given experiences in Syria and Afghanistan. What’s clear is that JNIM attacks have long been edging closer to Bamako, having previously been concentrated in central and northern regions. The group is reportedly forming coalitions with other anti-junta forces and cashing in on a recent record ransom payment made by the UAE for two kidnapped nationals. The Bamako blockade is also far more ambitious than previous sieges on smaller urban centres. Schools and universities have closed, and some embassies are calling on their citizens to return home. That said, JNIM has never shown a great capacity to hold urban areas, relying instead on so-called shadow governance structures. Seizing Bamako – a city of over four million that would be deeply hostile to them – may be too big a stretch.
Gaza, Lebanon, and the ceasefires that aren’t
The word ceasefire seems like a misnomer for the situation in the Gaza Strip since Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal that was supposed to end two years of war almost a month ago. The Israeli military is still deployed in over 50% of the territory and has continued to shell and open fire on Palestinians, killing more than 240 people and injuring over 600 since 11 October. Aid is also still entering the enclave at a trickle – far from the levels needed to address a hunger crisis caused by months of Israeli-enforced deprivation – with Israel rejecting many requests to bring in supplies. A UN resolution creating an international stabilisation force to deploy to Gaza – a key part of the 20-point US peace plan – is supposed to be ready in two weeks but may face delays over disagreements about its mandate and the timetable for Israel’s withdrawal from the territory. In the meantime, the Israeli military seems well entrenched in the 58% of Gaza where its forces are deployed and where Palestinians have been forced out. Numerous observers are pointing out that the situation is beginning to resemble south Lebanon, where Israel has continued to occupy land and carry out attacks despite a ceasefire agreement that went into effect at the end of November last year. In recent weeks, Israel has carried out near-daily attacks in south Lebanon, which escalated on 6 November with numerous airstrikes.
Kenyans worried over election violence… in Tanzania
While Kenyans are certainly no strangers to election-related violence, they probably weren’t expecting to encounter it in their southern neighbour, given its reputation for stability. However, the vicious police crackdown on protests that followed Tanzania’s disputed election a fortnight ago is raising alarm over the safety of the more than 250,000 Kenyans in the country. The Kenyan government has reluctantly confirmed that at least one Kenyan – a teacher in the Tanzanian capital, Dar-es-Salaam – has been killed, and demanded that the Tanzanian authorities guarantee the safety of Kenyans in the country amid reports of harassment. Fresh off her controversial victory, Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan scapegoated foreigners for the protests, fuelling fears of recriminations, as reports suggest more than 1,000 people may have been killed by the security forces.
Absent Trump looms large over COP30
Following another year of record temperatures and powerful storms, world leaders are gathering in Belém, Brazil ahead of the official opening of the COP30 climate talks. Humanitarians focused on climate will be looking out for breakthroughs on adaptation goals and how they can influence national positions. But the leaders attending (notably, they do not include US President Donald Trump) will be confronted by the fraying global consensus on climate change, amid difficult geopolitical headwinds and increasing securitisation worldwide. A major risk to multilateral climate action is the presidency of Trump, who previously described global warming as the world's "greatest con job”. Reuters reported some European officials have been bracing for a possible intervention by the Trump administration – despite the country’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The US recently torpedoed a carbon levy on shipping, and the European officials are worried that the Trump administration could make threats with tariffs or visa restrictions to influence the COP talks too. ”If they pull the same tactics, I think there's zero chance of having any sort of rallying around the Paris Agreement in response," one official told Reuters.
What is social protection? A humanitarian primer
Some 72% of the world’s extreme poor live in places hit by conflict and considered highly fragile – exposed to deep risk and less able to cope. But global humanitarian and development funding is stretched and tightening while crises spiral. Time for something different? That’s part of the thinking behind a new report compiling research and advice on steps forward (including for humanitarians) on social protection. Social protection includes the sort of services that many citizens expect from their governments: child assistance, employment or skills training, pensions, for example. But only a fraction of international aid in fragile places goes to support social protection, according to the report by a high-level panel. There are a range of voices behind the panel, including experts on poverty, governments (UK and Somalia are chairs), multilateral banks, donors, and humanitarians (including the UN’s humanitarian coordination arm, OCHA). Amid the so-called reset, some of the recommendations are pointed directly at humanitarians – who are often said to supplant rather than support states, and to fail to make exit plans. The advice includes: understand and design for existing social protection systems when planning responses; develop exit strategies that hand over to nationally led systems; and, above all, “Do no harm”.
Weekend read
“It’s like another Nakba”: Notes from the West Bank
“The settlers rule everything since 7 October. Now the soldiers take orders from the settlers, not the other way around.”
Reflections from a British university professor on how the situation in the West Bank has dramatically changed for the worse since 7 October 2023.
And finally…
From Ted Cruz’s lips to Trump’s ears
US Senator Ted Cruz is the tribune of a peculiar coalition of far-right Christian evangelicals; “Biafran” separatists; and sections of Nigerian civil society who all insist the Nigerian government allows – and possibly facilitates – the murder of Christians by Muslims. In September, Cruz sponsored a bill to designate Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern – which allows for sanctions. Comedian Bill Maher has echoed the radical fringe, claiming on his show last month that “over 100,000” Christians have been killed and 18,000 churches burnt. Predictably, the campaign finally reached President Trump. This week, he warned he may “go in ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out” Islamic insurgents if the government “continues to allow the killing of Christians”. It leaves President Bola Tinubu with a problem. Like the nonsense of South Africa’s “white genocide”, data doesn’t cut it. Trying to explain a complex problem means you’ve already lost the argument. And there are many Nigerians who agree with the religious characterisation of the farmer-herder clashes and the Boko Haram insurgency – rather than framing them as the governance crisis they truly are. Tinubu could try and note the overwhelming majority of victims are Muslims; that military power cannot uproot an ideology (as the US should have learnt); or that Trump’s sudden love for Christians doesn’t seem to extend to easing visa restrictions. Or he could just let it go. It seems more theatre than policy, with perhaps Fox News the real audience. See our latest: Boko Haram is back, and Nigeria’s IDP return policy is in trouble. The collection of testimonies reflects how Muslim communities are bearing the brunt of the violence.
