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Sudan’s grim anniversary, America’s climate of fear, and life after peak aid: The Cheat Sheet

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Louise O'Brien/TNH

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Sudan marks 2 years of war, and another massacre

It was tragically appropriate that the second anniversary of Sudan’s devastating civil war was marked by yet another massacre. At least 400 people were killed when the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) overran the Zam Zam displacement camp in North Darfur on 11 April. They also executed 10 staff in the last remaining clinic, including medics and ambulance drivers. Eighty percent of the camp’s original 500,000 population has escaped to the nearby government-held town of el-Fasher, although the RSF is believed to be trying to stop people – especially young men – from leaving. Sudan is recognised as the world’s largest humanitarian crisis in a conflict marked by both sides’ brutality and intransigence. An international conference held in London this week pledged millions of dollars in aid but made no progress on ending the war. Instead, regional powers, who hold the most sway over the military rivals, disagreed on Sudan's political future. As splits sharpen, the RSF has declared that it is forming a rival government – deepening fears of the permanent division of the country. For more, read this collection of TNH’s reporting.

Starvation fears as aid response collapses in Gaza

Eighteen months into Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip, the humanitarian aid system in the enclave is on the brink of total collapse, according to a warning by the CEOs of 12 major aid organisations. Every single person in Gaza is reliant on humanitarian assistance to survive, and Israel has been blocking the entry of all aid and goods into the enclave since 2 March. Since Israel resumed its military campaign on 18 March, 95% of NGOs operating in Gaza have suspended or reduced their services, according to a new humanitarian access survey, which also found that there are fewer than 9,000 pallets of aid remaining for Gaza’s 2.1 million residents. There have also been numerous Israeli attacks on hospitals and on aid workers and installations in recent weeks. Meanwhile, malnutrition among children is rapidly rising and the entire population is facing the threat of starvation. Israel has seized large areas of Gaza since it renewed its offensive, once again forcibly displacing hundreds of thousands of people. It has also signalled that it intends to keep the territory it has grabbed in the enclave, and in Lebanon and Syria, which would be a blatant violation of international law. For more, see our latest Gaza coverage here.

Trump’s crackdown on free expression

A climate of fear is quickly taking root in the US as President Donald Trump's administration uses immigration status and the threat of deportation to target student visa holders and legal permanent residents in a growing crackdown on freedom of expression. The most prominent targets have been leaders and participants in university protests against Israel’s war in Gaza and in defence of Palestinian rights. In the most recent case, Mohsen Mahdawi, a US permanent resident and student at Columbia University, was taken into custody by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents on 14 April while attending a meeting he was told was the final step towards gaining US citizenship. Mahdawi and multiple other students are being held in immigration detention, while more than 1,300 students have had visas revoked, sometimes for little discernible reason. The targeting of students is just one part of Trump's broader campaign of deportations and threats against universities, civil society groups, and media outlets aimed at curtailing criticism, controlling speech, and pushing a hard right-wing ideological agenda.

Trump and Bukele: A disturbing deportation alliance 

During a meeting in the Oval Office on 14 April, President Trump and his Salvadoran counterpart, Nayib Bukele, vowed to continue working together on deportations. A March agreement between the two men led to the deportation of more than 230 Venezuelans and Salvadorans from the US to a mega-prison in El Salvador. This was despite a court order barring the removals, and despite the fact that most deportees – all made out to be gang members – had no criminal records. One of the most glaring cases is that of Salvadoran Kilmar Abrego García, who was deported from Maryland due to an “administrative error”. In a Kafkaesque moment of Trump-era diplomacy, despite this admission, both Bukele and Trump insisted they were powerless to rectify the situation, with the former saying it would be like “smugg[ling] a terrorist into the United States”, although Abrego García hasn’t been convicted of any crime. The case, which has reached the Supreme Court, is emblematic of Trump's repeated defiance of the rule of law over immigration policies that have sparked outrage. He now says he plans to send homegrown US criminals to Bukele’s giant prison, even though legal experts say this would violate the US constitution. Bukele wants to double the capacity of the prison to hold 80,000 inmates.

Is the US backing off its Ukraine peace bid?

The United States has threatened to end its involvement in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine if progress is not seen within days. “If it is not possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Paris, following meetings with European leaders. “We need to determine very quickly now… whether or not this is doable,” he added. Rubio’s veiled ultimatum came despite reported progress on a US-Ukraine minerals deal. President Trump repeatedly claimed he would end the more than three-year-old war in one day but has been frustrated in those ambitions since returning to office. Trump has broken with US foreign policy orthodoxy by refusing to blame Russia for the war. He has also questioned whether the US should be providing Ukraine with billions of dollars in military and financial support, using it as leverage to exert political pressure on the country. The pessimistic tone comes after a string of recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities that have caused civilian casualties. The deadliest took place on 13 April in the northeastern city of Sumy, where 35 people were killed on Palm Sunday. Russia claimed it was targeting a gathering of senior military officers but provided no supporting evidence.

Life after peak aid

The numbers show what humanitarian budget planners have been charting for a couple years now: Donor aid budgets are backsliding. Official development assistance (ODA) from the world’s biggest donors fell for the first time in five years, according to preliminary 2024 data from the intergovernmental Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. And ODA could drop by up to 17% this year, according to a survey of member states. Humanitarian aid – some 10% of ODA – seems to have taken a bigger hit compared to overall totals. This only confirms the trends humanitarian leaders have been fretting about (some earlier than others). The big disruption, of course, is how abrupt the dismantling of US aid has been – exposing both the sector’s complacency and its financial dependency. But large volumes of US cash hid an earlier donor stagnation of humanitarian budgets, as this analysis showsRead more: What new funding data tells us about donor decisions in 2025. 

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AFGHANISTAN/RUSSIA: Russia’s Supreme Court has removed the Taliban from a list of “terrorist” organisations, a move seen as a step towards Moscow normalising relations with Afghanistan’s de facto rulers. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the Islamic Emirate a vital “ally” in the fight against terrorism. Last year, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan removed the group from similar lists.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has reneged on an agreement to allow trapped southern African peacekeeping troops – deployed in support of the Kinshasa government – to withdraw from the captured eastern city of Goma. The M23 has instead accused the force, known as SAMIDRC, of supporting the government army, Wazalendo militia, and the anti-Rwandan FDLR in attacking their positions – an allegation denied by both SAMIDRC and southern African governments.

ECUADOR/US: In an interview with CNN, President Daniel Noboa, who was re-elected on 13 April, said he “would love to have US forces” help him crack down on gangs that are using Ecuador as a transit route for drug smuggling. Last September, Noboa said he planned to reform the constitution to allow the presence of foreign military basesFor more on the impact of gang violence in Ecuador, read this report from Guayaquil.

EU: In its latest move aimed at cracking down on irregular migration and ramping up deportations, the EU published a list of seven countries it considers safe for people to stay in or return to. People seeking protection in the EU from Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco, and Tunisia could now see their claims rapidly rejected on the presumption they lack merit. The move has been criticised by human rights groups.

HAITI: Protests against the inaction of the transitional government intensified as concern grew that armed gangs plan to topple it. The interim authorities adopted a long-awaited war budget to support Haiti's badly outmanned security forces, but it was criticised for being too little too late, while gang killings and related displacement continue to rise.

INDIA/PAKISTAN: India and Pakistan are seeing summer heatwaves begin weeks earlier this year, as mid-April temperatures in Pakistan’s Balochistan province are expected to surge to 49 degrees Celsius. India’s capital, Delhi, has already seen temperatures surpassing 40 degrees Celsius. Typically, the extreme heat doesn’t arrive until May or June.

IRAN: Iran and the United States are set to hold a second round of indirect talks on Iran’s nuclear programme this weekend. The latest Oman-brokered negotiations – to be held in Rome – will follow a report that President Trump recently opted not to back Israel in a planned strike on Iranian nuclear sites.

IRAQ: Thousands of people have sought care in hospitals after a sandstorm swept across central and southern Iraq, leading to serious respiratory problems. Sandstorms in Iraq are increasingly frequent and intense, in part because of climate change.

NIGERIA: Communal violence in the troubled north-central state of Plateau has killed more than 100 people in just under two weeks. Plateau has a history of tensions between Muslim pastoralists and mostly Christian farmers over access to land. The state governor described the latest killings as “coordinated acts of terror” and has blamed armed herders for the violence. In what seems like an abdication of responsibility for security by the police – a trend across much of Nigeria – he said every community “must defend itself”.

SOMALIA: The insurgent group al-Shabab says it has seized the strategic town of Adan Yabaal – a logistical hub for government forces – about 220 kilometres north of the capital, Mogadishu. In response to the attack, the US launched an airstrike – the latest indication of the government’s increasingly shaky military position. Mogadishu said senior figures in the al-Qaeda-linked group were killed in the strike. 

YEMEN: US airstrikes on the Ras Issa oil port on 17 April killed at least 71 people and wounded more than 170, according to the Houthi rebels. The US military said it targeted the facility to cut off a key source of the Houthis’ fuel and revenue. The strikes were part of an intensified US bombing campaign in response to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel linked to the Gaza war. Most of Yemen’s humanitarian supplies enter the war-torn country through the main ports of Ras Issa, Hodeidah, and Salif.

Weekend read

Opinion | What if we stopped aid altogether?

If your humanitarian mission dies when the money dries up, it was never a mission, it was a business.

The future of refugee aid work is that INGOs need to ditch their egos and self-interest, and work honestly and collaboratively with refugee leaders.

And finally…

Cambodia’s genocide casts a long shadow

This week marks the 50th anniversary of the Khmer Rouge arriving in Phnom Penh in 1975 and beginning four years of communist rule that was supposed to bring an end to Cambodia’s civil war but instead became notorious for totalitarianism, genocide, and killing fields. By 1979, an estimated two million Cambodians (around a quarter of the population) had died as a result of the Khmer Rouge’s actions. Most perished from starvation or disease as millions were forced out of the cities to create a classless rural utopia, but many were also summarily executed as part of social engineering policies that saw a genocide of Cambodian minorities. Fifty years on, the legacy of the atrocities lives on in the long shadow they continue to cast over Cambodian politics. This week, an opposition party was denied permission to hold a memorial in Choeung Ek – an orchard in the capital that became the most infamous killing field – due to fears for public safety and political turmoil. The site is now known as The Choeung Ek Center for Genocide Crimes, due to its history as a killing site and mass grave for the purges ordered by Khmer Rouge leader Pol Pot. Mourners were also forbidden from praying in front of the skulls of the victims.

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