Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.
On our radar
An uncertain ceasefire in Gaza
After a brutal 15-month military campaign, Israel and Hamas have reached a three-phase ceasefire agreement that is set to begin on 19 January. During the first 42-day phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages out of around 100 the group is still holding from its deadly 7 October 2023 attacks into Israel. In return, Israel will release 30 to 50 Palestinian prisoners for each hostage, withdraw its military from population centres in Gaza, and allow 600 truckloads per day of humanitarian aid into the enclave. The thornier questions – including Israel’s total withdrawal from Gaza, post-war governance, and reconstruction – have been kicked to the second and third phases of the deal. Negotiations on those aren’t set to begin until 16 days into the ceasefire. Israel has said it will not totally withdraw from Gaza unless Hamas’ military and governing capabilities are completely destroyed, and at least one key member of Israel’s government has made his support for the deal contingent on resuming the war after the first phase and controlling the distribution of humanitarian aid. For its part, the battered population in Gaza has greeted the deal with a sense of relief but also distrust. For more, read: With a ceasefire in Gaza, hope comes with the sting of doubt.
Will Lebanon’s new picks usher in new reforms?
After choosing a new president in army chief Joseph Aoun earlier this month, Lebanon’s parliament has now named prominent jurist and diplomat Nawaf Salam prime minister. After two years of political deadlock, the choice of these two men – notably backed by Saudi Arabia and Western countries and not by Hezbollah – is being heralded by some as a chance for Lebanon to recover from its long-running economic collapse, and to rebuild after a 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that ended in late November. Gulf countries paid for much of Lebanon’s reconstruction after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, but the widening split between Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah’s close ally and funder, Iran, means things look different today. In a show of support for the new leadership, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Beirut on 17 January. France, along with institutions like the International Monetary Fund, has insisted on reforms to help Lebanon out of its economic quagmire. Previous governments did not make these changes, and while Salam has promised to “rescue, reform, and rebuild”, first he has to form a government. Read this for more on challenges facing Lebanon’s reconstruction, including why one local mayor rented two bulldozers to clean his village’s streets of rubble.
Uyghurs detained in Thailand fear imminent deportation to China
Thai authorities are reportedly preparing to deport 48 Uyghur asylum seekers to China after holding them in immigration detention for over a decade, setting off an international campaign to halt the move. In a handwritten statement, the detainees said Thai authorities asked them on 8 January to sign documents saying they consented to being repatriated to China, though they refused. “If we are sent back to China, we will not only face imprisonment but also risk implicating our families and friends, who could also be jailed,” they said. The men were part of a wave of overland escapes from persecution in China in 2013 and 2014. Thai authorities arrested around 350 near the Malaysian border in 2014, most of whom have either been transferred to Türkiye or handed over to China in 2015. A few dozen men and boys were left in Thailand, some of whom escaped, while five have died in detention, leaving the current 48. Up to now, Thailand has resisted pressure from China to repatriate them, as well as pressure from Western governments to release them. The men have been kept in squalid, overcrowded cells, where they are barred from speaking to non-Uyghur inmates, and cannot contact relatives or UN officials to process their requests for refugee status. However, the UN has also turned down offers from the Thai government to assist the group, fearing reprisals by China, The New Humanitarian revealed last year.
Pressure mounts on Ruto over Kenya abductions
Kenya’s abduction crisis has deepened after a cabinet minister went public with details of his frantic efforts to secure the release of his son, who was kidnapped by state security agents in June last year – at the height of youth-led protests. Justin Muturi, who at the time was the country’s attorney-general, has implicated President William Ruto in the abductions, saying it took an order from the head of state to free his son. According to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, at least 82 Kenyans have been disappeared in the last eight months, and 29 of them are still unaccounted for. Foreigners, including refugees, have not been spared either. Maria Sarungi, who fled Tanzania for Kenya in 2020, was abducted by armed men on 12 January in the capital, Nairobi. She was released several hours later following a public outcry. In October last year, four Turkish refugees were also abducted in Nairobi and forcibly repatriated to Türkiye. Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye similarly vanished from Kenyan streets only to reappear in a Ugandan courtroom. Kenya has a long history of state kidnappings, dating back to Western-backed War on Terror renditions and, before that, enforced disappearances during both the colonial era and the authoritarian rule of the country’s first two post-independence regimes.
Haitian displacement passes one million
The number of displaced people in Haiti has soared past one million (almost 10% of the population) – a new record high that includes a tripling over the last year, according to the UN’s migration agency, IOM. A new report by the National Human Rights Defense Network in Haiti (RNDDH) says 95% of those living in the country’s 117 displacement camps have fled gang violence. In these sites, they face poor sanitary conditions, overcrowding, and exposure to infectious diseases. Access to basic services is very limited, with 39% of the residents having no access to drinking water. Waste is only collected irregularly, and the Haitian state cleans only 5% of the camps. There are no toilets in 29% of them and, even when there are, women and girls can’t use them at night without risking gender-based or sexual violence. In 15% of the camps, residents have no access to healthcare. For more about the experience of displaced Haitians, read “The life and death of a displaced Haitian woman”, and for more on why the Kenya-led security mission is failing to bring more stability, read this in-depth briefing.
Biden’s migration contradictions, and Trump’s next moves
US President Joe Biden extended temporary humanitarian protections for over 800,000 people from Venezuela and El Salvador, aiming to help protect them from deportation once President-elect Donald Trump takes office on 20 January. The move highlights the contradictions in Biden’s approach to irregular migration: He created often narrow legal pathways for some people to enter the US on humanitarian grounds while also whittling away asylum rights at the border, deporting more people than Trump did during his first term, and doubling down on deterrence policies that have driven humanitarian crises at borders throughout Latin America. What does the future hold as Trump 2.0 nears? Trump is promising an even more hardline approach – including mass deportations – without any of the humanitarian nods of the past four years. Unpredictability is key, but uneven cuts to a highly US-dependent humanitarian system are likely. And as our yearly policy lookahead points out, the extra variable is how Trump’s actions can embolden other “me first” actions by inward-looking leaders – from cuts and unilateralism to racist policies and legislation that kneecaps civil society and NGOs.
Weekend read
Haiti in-depth: Why the Kenya-led security mission is floundering
“The Kenyans were sent to be butchered.”
The US failure to effectively support the mission it pushed for has left the Kenyan police on the ground in an impossible Catch-22 situation.
And finally…
How to stay safe from drones
Call it a sign of the times. A new report on the rising threat of drones on aid has a handy list of dos and don’ts for frontline workers. Do: Keep away from windows and seek cover (ideally two walls away from the threat). Don’t: Try to outrun, film, or destroy a drone. Also good to know: “Yoga mats do not provide cover.” The report, from data analysis outfit Insecurity Insight, details a steep rise in drone attacks on aid and health work. Recorded attacks went from a handful a year to more than 300 in 2024. The Israeli military is responsible for the largest share in this jump, but “incidents involving drone-delivered explosives affecting aid” have also been recorded by the armed forces of Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Mali, and Burkina Faso, among others (along with armed groups like the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan). Aid groups should level up their practices to keep safe, but as the report notes, there’s no policy fix for the root problem: “The best security risk management approach is insufficient when conflict parties are not willing to protect aid and health services.”