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The good news for Asia as well as aid workers is that with 2009 being an El Niño year, the sub-continent could experience fewer and less intense cyclones, according to a climatologist with the Bangkok-based Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC).
El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño episode, the Walker circulation, a conceptual model of the air flow in the tropics over the Pacific and Indian Ocean, weakens.
"This means fewer cyclones and the location of cyclones will also move from the west Pacific Ocean [where 40 percent of all global tropical storms form ever year] further southeast on the Pacific [away from any landmass], which will lead to fewer land-falling cyclones in the Southeast Asian region," said PVS Raju, a climatologist with ADPC.
Seven to eight cyclones form over the west Pacific Ocean in a "normal year" and drop to about two or three in an El Niño year, studies have shown.
El Niño will also have an impact on cyclones forming over the Indian Ocean region. "They will be less intense," said Raju. Nargis and Sidr, two of the deadliest cyclones in recent times, were formed in that region, which records 25 percent of the annual global total of tropical storms.
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This article was produced by IRIN News while it was part of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Please send queries on copyright or liability to the UN. For more information: https://shop.un.org/rights-permissions
