15 million could be affected by drought

As many as 15 million South Africans could be affected by one of the worst droughts in 10 years. According to Toffee Mokgethi, head of the country's National Disaster Mangement Centre, "Of those ... at least four million are in need of immediate assistance."

Among them are three million communal or subsistence farmers and their dependants. "We have worked out an average of five dependants per household, which, multiplied by three, gives us the 15 million figure," Mokgethi told IRIN.

The communal farmers, who live in South Africa's former apartheid homelands, are worst-off. "As the former homelands did not have a good infrastructure in place, the communal farmers, who now constitute our rural dwelling population, do not have access to water or to primary health facilities. They have been growing vegetables and other food crops for their subsistence - with no rainfall, many of them now need urgent assistance," said Mokgethi.

The farmers are spread over seven provinces - Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, Northern Cape, Free State, Mpumalanga, North West and Eastern Cape - which have all been declared disaster areas.

South Africa's previous serious drought was in 1992, when more than seven provinces were declared disaster areas. Mokgethi said the centre was drawing up a drought profile of the country, which would also give an indication of the impact on the country's water resources.

Meanwhile, rain in recent days brought some good news for maize prices, which continue to be weather-driven. The price of white maize dropped by another R45 (US $6.17) on Tuesday, bringing it down to R1,300 (US $182.11) a tonne.

No surprises emerged from the National Crops Estimates Committee meeting on Tuesday. The South African Chamber of Milling's executive director, Jannie de Villiers, said the committee had revealed that maize was planted on almost 2.56 million hectares for the current cropping season from October 2003 to May 2004.

Of the total area of land under maize cultivation, 1.67 million hectares was devoted to white maize and 892,000 hectares to yellow maize. Based on those planting figures, De Villiers said, the country could expect over four million tonnes of white maize and at least 2.67 million tonnes of yellow maize.

South Africa consumes about four million tonnes of white maize, and three to four million tonnes of yellow maize. "We will not have to import any white maize, but we might have to import a bit more of the yellow maize," explained De Villiers.

Mokgethi commented: "The crisis facing the country is not so much about the availability of food, but the accessibility in the rural areas."