Contrasting impact of food crisis

Zambia's current food security crisis, though serious, is localised and "ultimately more manageable" than neighbouring Zimbabwe, the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) said in a new report.

"Zambia's food security problems this year are serious in the southern part of the country and are mostly the result of multiple years of drought, rather than policy and governance issues. Still, these issues are compounded by the already high poverty levels making it increasingly difficult for affected households to respond to the current food problems without external assistance," the report said.

Zambia has a projected maize deficit of around 626,000 mt until April next year. According to the World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organisation figures, commercial imports are projected at 351,000 mt, with the remaining shortfall of 275,000 mt to be covered by the government and donor aid. Over 2.3 million people are in need of food aid.

The level of this year's food production was around 24 percent lower than last year's below-average production - and well below average production - primarily as a result of prolonged dry spells in some parts of the country. Heavy crop losses in the west, south, east and parts of central Zambia have left around 20 percent of the population in need of assistance, said the USAID-funded FEWS NET.

"Food access is a potentially more serious problem than food availability. As in all countries bordering Zimbabwe, prices are abnormally high and successive poor harvests in parts of the country have reduced poor households' ability to purchase food," the report said.

Food availability problems this year are serious, but well within the ability of the government and donors to manage. Zambia, has informal trade links with Mozambique and Tanzania, which should reduce the amount of maize that needs to be formally imported into the country, either by the government's Food Reserve Agency or commercial traders, FEWS NET noted.

"One aspect to monitor is whether or not the government provides a clear signal to commercial traders about its import intentions and potential support for commercial imports (last year the government subsidised commercial imports). If this
signal is made early and clear it would encourage the commercial sector to import. If not, then commercial traders could delay importing maize, resulting in a serious food shortfall as was the case in the middle of the 2001/02 marketing season," added the report.

Meanwhile, the situation in Zimbabwe, where six million are at risk - half of the population - is far worse. FEWS NET warned in a separate report that the crisis could degenerate into famine unless the government reversed its policies on farm acquisitions, lifted restrictions on the role of the private sector, and shelved a ban on importing genetically modified grain (mainly provided by the United States).

"In Zimbabwe, the combination of poor policies and governance failure has set the stage for this year's drought to have a much larger effect than it normally would have. The continuing economic decline due to a combination of factors — including a coercive and ill-advised land distribution programme — has put a large portion of the population at risk of food shortages, and hence food access," the organisation said.

It was difficult to see how conditions could improve over the coming year, FEWS NET predicted. "Unless numerous policy changes are made, it is unlikely that the next harvest will be any better than this year, even if normal rains return," the report forecasted.

"Not only does the poor production constrain food access, but Zimbabwe's current financial and food crises are certain to deepen, and will further erode the purchasing power of households in both the rural and urban areas. Large numbers of unemployed commercial farm workers purchased most of their food in past years, but now have limited resources to do so. In addition, poorer segments of the communal small holder population normally buy a significant portion of their food, even in good years," the report added.

The decrease in productivity in rural areas and the increasing cost of living in urban areas (worsened by high rates of unemployment) are contributing to the rapidly declining purchasing power of households and mounting food access problems.

"There are early indications that the emergency response will be complicated by several factors, including the large number of households, reduced stocks partially because of cereal shortages in the previous marketing year, Zimbabwe's refusal to accept genetically modified cereals, the politicisation of food aid and major distribution and logistical challenges. All of these issues could severely hamper the emergency response and increase the probability that the situation in Zimbabwe could deteriorate into a famine," FEWS NET said.

For the full Zimbabwe report:
http://www.fews.net/current/updates/gcontent.cfm?submit=y&gc_id=1000130&f=al&d=0&i=1022