War at its "deadliest phase", ICG warns

The civil war in Sudan has in recent months reached its "deadliest phase", due to the increased acquisition of lethal weapons by both sides, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned. This was enabling them to fight more conventional and frequent engagements, not only killing a greater number of soldiers but also producing more extensive collateral damage than before.

In a hard-hitting report, released on Thursday, the Brussels-based international think-tank said oil revenues had enabled the Sudanese government to purchase more weapons and adopt "more brutal tactics" in driving civilians out of oil areas. Meanwhile, the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) had acquired additional quantities of sophisticated weapons, enabling it to engage government troops in "more intensive conventional" battles.

"After nearly two decades, the Sudanese civil war has reached its deadliest phase. Both sides have more lethal weapons and are fighting more conventional battles," the ICG report, entitled, "Dialogue of Destruction: Organising for peace as the war in Sudan escalates", said.

According to the report, released to coincide with a new round of talks, which opened in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on 17 June, under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the bloodiest battles in Sudan's history had been fought during this past dry season between January and June.

The Sudanese conflict began in 1983, when the Sudanese government, led at the time by former President Ja'far Numayri, imposed Islamic shari'ah law on the entire country, including the mostly Christian and animist south. At least two million people, mainly civilians, have been killed in the war since then, according to humanitarian sources.

Meanwhile, peace efforts have been bogged down, because, as frequently claimed by key countries within the wider international community, they "lacked leverage" to move the warring parties towards peace. "Leverage does not grow on trees. It is created through leadership in the development of a multilateral strategy and its judicious execution," the report said.

"Western countries must refrain from repeating such statements, as they increase perceptions among Sudanese parties that the leverage the West does enjoy will not be used during the new set of negotiations - perceptions that in fact reduce outside leverage in the manner of a self-fulfilling prophesy," it added.

The major sticking points dividing Sudanese parties include the separation of religion and state, and the distribution of power and wealth. However, self-determination for the south, appears to stand above other issues as the potential "ultimate spoiler" of the peace process, according to ICG.

It went on to say that the divergent positions held by the warring parties were too entrenched to be reconciled through conventional facilitation alone. ICG was therefore urging the regional players, and key players from the international community with influence on both sides to use their leverage to compel both parties to move towards peace.

"More forceful diplomatic intervention will be required than is currently envisioned," its report said. "The most visible missing ingredient of a potentially successful IGAD peace effort is coordination of pressures and incentives."

The ICG urged the US government, which joined the efforts to achieve peace in Sudan late last year, to "work closely" with Egypt, Sudan's "most important neighbour", to lead efforts to support the peace process. At the same time, the US and other international players, such as Norway and the UK, should "signal high-level political commitment" on their part by devoting political resources to the process.

"With battle lines and negotiating positions so clearly drawn, the efforts to energise the IGAD peace process have so far been useful, but not sufficient. The window of opportunity for peace in Sudan is beginning to close. A much more robust effort must be undertaken both by the IGAD states and, in their support, by the international community if peace is to be made," ICG said its statement released.

"In the first instance, this requires quick construction of a considerably more detailed peace strategy, including the organisation and deployment of serious leverage. Absent this, the Sudanese people will be condemned to increasing death and destruction, and a wide swathe of Africa will remain subject to the destabilising consequences," it added.