Military more divided than ever

A growing split in the army could well determine whether President Didier Ratsiraka regains control of Madagascar in the wake of December's disputed presidential poll, a civic leader told IRIN on Tuesday. On Monday soldiers loyal to Ratsiraka descended on the national parliamentary complex in the capital, where opposition leader and self-declared president Marc Ravalomanana has installed his cabinet. In response, opposition supporters set up barricades in the streets, foiling the attempt to seize control of the building. According to local media reports, protesters used rocks and garbage containers to block roads leading to the building. Rather than risk a showdown, the outnumbered military reportedly backed down. "It was perhaps premature to assume that the entire army had switched alliance and were firmly under Ravolomanana's control. The move by pro-Ratsiraka soldiers means the president still commands some control, even in the capital. In fact, the division in the army is probably why both men are reticent to compromise," Madeleine Ramaholimihaso, who headed the consortium of civil society organisations that monitored the disputed presidential poll, told IRIN. "It is perhaps telling of the army's commitment to their mission when confronted by the opposition on the streets. Also most of the protesters are unarmed," a diplomatic source in Antananarivo said. Ramaholimihaso said Monday's military action indicated a serious split in the army which could eventually determine who controls the country. The island state has been wracked by political turmoil since Ravalomanana, the capital's mayor, claimed outright victory in the 16 December presidential poll. After weeks of mass action to support his claim, including a damaging national strike, Ravalomanana declared himself president, rejected a run-off election and compelled Ratsiraka's government to move its headquarters to Tamatave. Ratsiraka, who has ruled the country for almost 23 years, responded by declaring martial law in the capital - a decree which has been largely ignored as Ravalomanana commands overwhelming support in Antananarivo. Ratsiraka has also demanded that a run-off take place and has ordered an economic blockade of the capital in a bid to force Ravalomanana to back down. Madagascar's army has urged the rival leaders to resolve their increasingly violent power struggle in which 20 people are estimated to have been killed in recent weeks. However, while a number of senior generals have taken sides in the political dispute, the military has largely remained neutral. Monday's attempt to regain control of the parliamentary complex was the army's first serious intervention in the dispute so far. Organisation of African Unity mediators have made little headway with a proposal that the two sides set up a government of national unity to spend six months organising a fresh round of voting to decide the presidency. With no outside threat and very limited funds, Madagascar only has about 13,000 soldiers and 8,000 military police. While the military police are reasonably equipped and trained, only a small fraction of the army is believed to be battle-ready. Though Ravalomana is popular in the capital, it is unclear how much support he has in the rest of the country.